This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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FEBRUARY 8, 2020
STOCKS: AAPL, MSFT TWTR, UBER, FB
MARCO: SPY, JOBS DATA, 10-YEAR
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN MSFT, AAPL
February 13, 2020, Live Streaming Event
Michael will be hosting a live streaming event for members of Reading The Markets for Seeking Alpha and StockTwits on February 13 at 9 PM ET. It will focus on he uses fundamentals, technicals, and options market analysis to find stocks on the move. As well as taking questions from members!
He will be reviewing mostly the basics of Technical Analysis and Option Trading
To join the event you need sign-up!
I was pretty drained by Thursday with all of the earnings that I cover and analysis I do for various websites and subscribers. I apologize for not sending any material out yesterday, but I needed a break. I was thinking of taking the weekend off, which as many of you know, it is infrequent I take a day off, but I am feeling a bit better today. So we can give it a go.
Stocks had one of those strange days on Friday, where the strong BLS job report should have sent shares higher, but the data didn’t help. I noted to subscribers in the morning that the only thing I could think of that may have played into the lack of reaction was that perhaps the strong data would sap the odds of a rate cut later this year that the market had been starting to price in, however, that appears not to be the case. In fact, the CME group is showing the same 41% chance of a cut.
Perhaps it was merely the effect of nervousness ahead of the weekend, in the middle of the coronavirus. Plus, it was coming off a big week with the S&P 500 up almost 4%. So profit-taking? It seems like a good chance that was the case. Premium content – Stocks Decline Follow Jobs Report In Odd Turn Of Events
S&P 500 (SPY)
There are still some gaps to fill on the chart for the S&P 500, down at 3,300. However, the S&P 500 had a chance to fill that gap on Friday when it tested support a couple of times, and it managed to hold firm at 3,326. I think as long as the newsflow is quite over the weekend, we can see the market continue higher to start the week and push back to the highs around 3,340.
Yields moved lower as well on the 10-year, after the jobs too.
The one interesting thing was the number of people that were unemployed increased this month. This could be to due the changes in the population totals in the household survey because the size of the overall population dropped as well.
Uber had a big day after reporting good results and giving a pretty rosy outlook for a path to profitability. At least for now, the bulls appear to be winning the argument, and the stock rose to resistance at $40.60. That was the price I was looking for and noted in the earnings preview story I wrote for Forbes. Uber’s Stock May Rise Following Results On Massive Volatility
Apple’s stock for the first time is showing some of fatigue, with what appears to be a bearish divergence forming, noted by the declining RSI. Should the stock fall, it is likely to drop to around $311. However, the longer-term uptrend is still firmly in place, and I think that means that instead of the stock falling, it consolidates sideways. I also noted some bullish options betting an Investing.com article published on Friday. Apple Traders Are Betting The Shares Will Continue To Surge
Facebook has been struggling at resistance at $212, and I did see some big bearish bets placed on Facebook. I noted in this free article for Seeking Alpha on Thursday. I think the stock falls to $203, with a big chance it goes to around $191.Facebook Is Now An Aging Growth Story
Microsoft has been ripping lately, and I noted on two different days for premium subscribers some significant bullish options that suggest the stock keeps climbing, perhaps to as high as $200. Microsoft Rapid Update- Buyers Back, Why Microsoft Stock Still Has Further To Rise
Twitter did not go as expected; I had thought the stock would drop following the results, based on bearish betting. Clearly, that was wrong. The stock did fail at resistance on Thursday, around $39.25, and the gap from last quarter’s results is now filled. There is of course a new gap created which means shares could fall back to $34.35 in the weeks ahead.
Have a good Saturday
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.