Subscribe to receive this FREE daily commentary directly in your email
2/7/2022
STOCKS – XOM, SQ, LCID
MACRO – SPY, TIP
- RTM- Waiting For Midweek
- RTM Exclusive: Exxon’s Surging Stock May Fall Along With Oil
- RTM Tactical Update: Rate Shock
- RTM Live Event Links
- RTM: Post Employment Update
- LIVE Q&A SESSION FRIDAY 2/4/22 AT NOON ET
- RTM- Yields Surge As ECB May Now Be In Play For 2022
Stocks finished the day lower, with the S&P 500 falling by almost 40 bps. The declines came in the final hour after a pretty flat day. The S&P 500 again tested the downtrend and failed to break above it. But until it can break 4,450, we have to weigh the risk that the downtrend breaks. However, given the grind-up in rates, I think it is much more likely that the index breaks 4,450 and heads back to the January lows, if not further.
Rates
As I noted in today’s midday write-up and podcast for members, the outlook for stocks is less favorable today, and as long as rates continue to grind higher, it will be difficult for stocks to see gains. Despite nominal rates being relatively quiet today, TIP rates did push a bit higher. (The first two weeks are free to try – RTM- Waiting For Midweek)
The 5-Yr TIP closed higher by one bps to -93 bps from -94 bps on Friday. The inverted NASDAQ chart below shows that the index has not kept up with the rising real rates recently, and so the NASDAQ probably needs to take another leg lower to catch up to the recent rise in those real rates. In fact, with real yields making new highs, it would imply that the NASDAQ should be making new lows.
Lucid (LCID)
Lucid shares have fallen dramatically, and based on the chart, it looks like it may be about to make another big move lower. It sits right on support around 26.80; once that breaks, it is probably heading straight to $24.
Square (SQ)
It looks like Square moved up just enough last week to get out of overbought conditions so that the stock can now break lower and push to $83.
Exxon (XOM)
In a write-up today, I noted that Exxon’s run might be coming to an end, along with oil. It is available for members of RTM. (First Two Weeks Are Free to Try – RTM Exclusive: Exxon’s Surging Stock May Fall Along With Oil)
Have a good one
Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Subscribe to receive this FREE daily commentary directly in your email
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
Dispersion And Volatility Indicators Warn Of Instability
Mott Capital's Market Chronicles 7 hours ago