Subscribe to receive this daily commentary directly in your email
Independent macro and options research, published every trading day — $85/mo or $750/yr
Subscribe →4/5/22
STOCKS – SHOP, AMZN, SQ, NVDA
MACRO – SPY, QQQ, TIP
Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – $65/MONTH OR $520/YEAR – The First 2-weeks are FREE to try.
- RTM- Everything Is Starting To Break (DAILY UPDATE)
- RTM: Real Rates Soar Ahead Of FOMC Minutes [VIDEO]
- RTM First Look: The FOMC Minutes Pattern
- RTM: Set Up?
- RTM: Betting Real Yields Go Much Higher [Short Term Options Idea]
- RTM: Closing Out Tesla [TMG Update]
- RTM Tactical Update: All Eyes On The Balance Sheet Reduction
- RTM: Reversal May Be In Place
The S&P 500 fell by roughly 1.25%, while the NASDAQ finished down over 2%. Today’s drop quickly erased yesterday’s advance. The pattern in the QQQ ETF worked out quite nicely, with the ETF returning to the origin of the move higher.
Navigating The Market · By Michael Kramer Independent macro and options research, published every trading day. Daily written analysis covering gamma exposure, dealer flows, key levels, and the macro drivers moving markets. Includes full video access. Recent Subscriber Analysis
The whole drop started when a usually dovish member of the FOMC sounded very hawkish. That doesn’t bode well for tomorrow when the minutes are released.
From a technical sense, there is something much worse at play here, which is a rising broadening wedge. The QQQ closed just a touch below the bottom trend line, not enough to convince me the pattern has broken down. If it does break down, which I expect to happen, nearly all of the gains from the middle of March will be gone.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The same pattern is present in the S&P 500.
TIP (TIP)
The TIP ETF keeps dropping, and it isn’t even oversold yet. Meanwhile, the gap between the TIP and QQQ keeps growing wider. Just watch the TIP ETF.
The relationship is powerful between the TIP ETF and Amazon. So I’d be rethinking my thesis if you are someone looking for Amazon to go higher from.
Dollar (DXY)
If there wasn’t enough going on, the dollar index broke out today, rising above resistance around 99.40; the next stop is over 100. I know that is not much of a call, but it is crucial.
The Market Chronicles · Video Membership The daily market commentary, delivered in video. Same daily market analysis, in video form — available to YouTube channel members only. Latest Videos
Amazon (AMZN)
By the way, I forgot to mention that there is a head and shoulder pattern on the Amazon hourly chart.
Shopify (SHOP)
Shopify has the same pattern.
Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia has the Head And Shoulders pattern too.
Square (SQ)
Square too
Have a good one.
Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser in the State of New York. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
One Last Pay-Down Boost Before The Bill-Issuance Drain Begins
Mott Capital's Market Chronicles 23 hours ago