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STOCKS – ADBE, AMD, ROKU
MACRO – SPY, QQQ
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- RTM Exclusive: Micron Shares May Plunge Amid Slumping DRAM Prices [Options]
- RTM: Stock May Drop On Volatility Spike [Daily Update]
- RTM: Job Sink Stocks, Will Volatility Melt? [Daily Update]
- RTM: Stocks Run On VIX Melt
- RTM: Rates And The Dollar Will Lead The Way For Stocks [Daily Update]
- RTM: Rates And Dollar Rocketing Higher [Daily Update]
- RTM: All Eyes On The Vix
- Stocks finished the day lower, with the S&P 500 dropping by 1.1%. We appear to be in a distribution pattern right now, churning at the top of the range. Today, we closed right above the lower uptrend, which helps form the diamond pattern in the S&P 500. Again, as I have noted for a few days, I think we see 3980 based on this pattern. Typically, these are reversal patterns, and they tend to return to the origin of the move higher. Which is lower than 3,980, but I am using that level because I believe there should be support there.
The pattern on the QQQ is a diamond too, but only the top half. The red line is the mid-point and support, currently around $307. For now, I think the QQQ can fall back to $300, maybe a bit lower, for the same reason as the S&P 500 dropping.
AMD comes to an exciting point; the shares managed to rally up to the downtrend. It even managed to almost push through the downtrend, but it hasn’t been able to in the end. The big level of support for AMD comes to around $100, and that is the level that will need to hold. Otherwise, a retest of the recent lows could be coming, based on the technical setup.
Roku had a big day, with the shares rising on rumors of Netflix buying it. Roku used to be part of Netflix a long time ago, and then Netflix decided not to pursue the business. If I remember correctly, the premise was that Netflix wanted to be neutral and wanted to be able to get on all of the different streaming media devices. I find it odd that Netflix would now like to go back to Roku. Yes, Roku has an ad model, but that isn’t going to solve Netflix’s problem. Anything is possible, and the technical chart remains bullish for ROKU after the stock climbed out of that falling wedge pattern and that positive RSI.
There may be another leg lower coming in Adobe, and with the company due to report results next week, we may not have to wait too long to find out. The shares have been channeling lower now for some time, and the momentum on the RSI is also at a downtrend. So while the stock is trying to turn bullish, I don’t think that time is now. Given where the stock is, it seems like we are destined to find out very soon what the future path for Adobe will be.
Have a good one
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice.Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.