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3/30/22
STOCKS – NVDA, MU
MACRO – IWM, VIX, DOLLAR
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- RTM: Stocks To Reverse, Bond Yields To Fall?
- RTM: Fundamentals Unchanged [Daily Update]
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- RTM: Oh Nvidia [Daily Update]
- RTM Exclusive: Betting Exxon Drops [Short-Term Options Idea]
Stocks finished the day lower, with the S&P 500 falling by around 65 bps. There was nothing overly exciting about today, just a run-of-the-mill pullback at this point, which couldn’t fill the gap from yesterday’s opening. But we need to remember that things will dramatically change starting on Friday, when quarterly rebalancing is over, reality sets back in, and that is around the economy, inflation, and the Fed. Then things will heat up into the release of the FOMC minutes next Wednesday.
That means we will likely see a VIX that starts to rise from here and has bottomed as traders look to put hedges back on, sending the S&P 500 down. The VIX at 19.3 is pretty much as low as it has been in some time and is now at the lower end of the channel. I talked about this and more in today’s daily update for members of RTM ( First two-weeks are free to try – RTM: Stocks To Reverse, Bond Yields To Fall?)
Russell 2000 (IWM)
Today, the Russell had a pretty bearish move after testing significant resistance at 2,140, then trading lower today and going below all of the previous highs at 2,100. The Russell will need to rebound quickly tomorrow. Otherwise, the index is likely heading significantly lower.
Nvidia (NVDA)
The gamma squeeze in Nvidia is over, and the stock also broke its mini uptrend. I think this will be trading sub $265 very soon, and probably much lower than that.
Micron (MU)
I had thought Micron’s results were good from what I had initially read. But I guess they weren’t good enough. The stock traded up to $86 only to close at $79, a nearly 9% Intraday swing. The region between $75 and $77 seems critical for what happens next. My only thought of what I initially saw would be around the CAPEX, but I need to reread it; I haven’t had enough time.
Dollar
Finally, we need to keep a close eye on the Dollar index. It looks a triple top has formed and is now very close to confirming the pattern. A drop below 97.75 will be bad news for the dollar index and the Fed’s fight against inflation.
Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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