3/29/22

STOCKS – SHOP, TWLO, ROKU

MACRO – SPY, QQQ

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S&P 500 (SPY)

Stocks rose again today by 1.2% as the quarter draws near its conclusion. Tomorrow will mark an exciting day, especially with that gap at 4,660 potentially filling, which is also the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. At this point, I would like to see what happens once that gap is filled. To have come this far and for that gap not to be filled.  If the gap fills, and there is a sharp reversal Intraday, I think that says a lot about the market and where it goes next.

Can the rally continue to new highs, should the 4,660 resistance break? From a logical standpoint, it should not. There is no more fiscal stimulus, monetary policy has shifted, rates have risen, growth has decelerated, and PEs are too high again.

But stocks tend to trade more with emotion than common sense. However, if real yields keep pushing up, I don’t see how stocks don’t have a very sharp reversal in store for them.

Shopify (SHOP)

Shopify has come this far; it might as well fill that gap at $865.

Roku (ROKU)

Roku finally broke that long-term downtrend and has a nice gap to fill up to $146.

Twilio (TWLO)

It took forever, but Twilio finally filled the gap $121.

 

-Mike