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May 11, 2021
STOCKS – NVDA, XOM, JNJ
MACRO – QQQ, IEF
- RTM Morning: More Pain Comes On 5.11.21
- RTM Video – Capitulation?
- RTM MORNING – Reflation Trade May Be Running Out Of Room
- Measuring The Life Cycle Of The Reflation Trade
- MORNING NOTE- TOO MUCH OF A GOOD THING
- Is The Reflation Trade Ready To Deflation?
- RTM MORNING: WE ARE THIS CLOSE TO THE CLIFFS END
It as a hectic day for stocks swing between gains and losses. Overall, the Qs finished the day basically flat, while the S&P 500 fell by about 90 bps. Tomorrow there are lots of changes that are likely to take place, especially with the release of the CPI data at 8:30 AM.
The Qs gapped below the 50-day moving and despite, the ETF rally to fill the technical gap created from the morning drop. That moving average appears to have acted as a level of resistance all day. Whether that resistance continues is unclear to me.
It is really going to depend on what happens with interest rates tomorrow. All the signs point to rates, moving higher from here. Whether CPI hits or misses, may not matter, rates will do what they want, but clearly a hotter CPI would increase odd of rates moving higher. The first level of resistance I am looking for is at the prior high from April around 1.76%.
Nvidia finished the day flat, after testing key support at $550. That will remain the big level to watch for Nvidia. A break of support likely sends shares back to March lows.
Johnson and Johnson has an interesting chart. There is what appears to be a potential double top pattern, or the potential for a big breakout. It is too close to call at this point, but bears watching.
Exxon Mobil (XOM)
The chart for Exxon Mobil looks very similar to that of Johnson and Johnson, at least from the double top perspective. A lot of where Exxon goes will be dependent on oil prices.
That’s all for today.
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