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Stocks – NVDA, ZM
Macro – SPY,
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- Market Calm Ahead Of OPEX
- Buyers Are Still Tired
- Stocks Drift, Will Nvidia Save The Day?
- Stocks Continue To Struggle At Resistance
- Bonds Signaling Double-Dip Recession?
- 2 Long-Term Theme Ideas And Valuations
- Signs For A Drop To 3200 Mount
- More Bearish Bets Placed On The SPY
- Bonds/Dollar Not As Excited As Stocks
- On Watch For A Sharp Pullback
Stocks finished the day lower, after a rather boring day. Most of the action took place in the final hour. It resulted in the S&P 500 finishing the day down about 70 bps, while the Qs fell about 70 bps.
There was nearly a $2 billion imbalance on the sell-side going into the closing cross. That was the driving force lower into the close, and I would think a lot of that was options expiration related.
Navigating The Market · By Michael Kramer Independent macro and options research, published every trading day. Daily written analysis covering gamma exposure, dealer flows, key levels, and the macro drivers moving markets. Includes full video access. Recent Subscriber Analysis
S&P 500 (SPY)
I still think this market is heading lower, as it has so many classic signs of a top, which we have reviewed throughout the week. Now there may be a narrative to go along with the signs of a topping, the double-dip recession. I told you weeks ago; this narrative would surface, and it has. Now it is just a matter of when this because a narrative among the rest of the market.
The setup couldn’t be better. We just had options expiration, the number of stocks above their 200-day moving average is near historical highs. Now add to that inflation expectation, which has started to roll-over. We will see how things go.
Zoom (ZM)
Zoom was higher today, but remember I said it was likely the stock could go higher first. But notice how it stopped at resistance around $445. That price also happens to be where a downtrend lives, while the RSI continues to trend lower too. Overall, these are all bearish trends, suggesting there are still lower prices coming, and I think the next stop will be around $325.
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Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia was weak today following its earnings earlier this week. The stock hasn’t gone anywhere since early September. The trends on the RSI continue to bearish, while a drop to $460 still seems likely.
Anyway, have a good Friday.
Mike
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