#MACRO: #SPX, #NDX, #VIX, #COR1M, #USDCAD

#STOCKS: #ADBE, #INTU, #XBI

 

The S&P 500 fell 90 bps today, closing at 5695, bringing the zero gamma level back into focus. This area has strong support, primarily because it separates the post-FOMC gap higher from the current island we’re sitting on. If the index gaps lower today, it could create an island reversal top, initiating a move back to 5620. A drop below 5620 would push the index toward 5400.

It also looks like the NASDAQ 100 has formed either a diamond top or a head and shoulders pattern. Both patterns suggest a move back to 18,480. This could be a significant move, as it impacts the larger bear pennant that has been forming in the index since the July peak.

Meanwhile, the USDCAD closed at its highest level since mid-August, potentially reclaiming resistance at 1.36. Typically, when the USDCAD moves higher, the S&P 500 moves lower, and I don’t expect this time to be any different.

The 1-month implied correlation index spiked sharply today. As the market moves lower, implied volatility tends to rise across the board, making stocks more correlated. This is why a higher 1-month implied correlation index is often a signal that the index is breaking lower.

Today was the first time in a while that the HYG moved lower by a significant amount. This will be important to monitor, as it’s one of the easier ways to track credit spreads. Right now, it appears to be heading lower, potentially toward the lower Bollinger Band

The XBI biotech ETF likely won’t fare well if rates at the back end of the curve continue to rise. The ETF seems to have formed a quadruple top around $101.25 in recent weeks and is now on the verge of breaking a major long-term uptrend dating back to the October 2023 lows. A move back to $87 is certainly possible.

Adobe had a rough day, dropping nearly 4% and, more importantly, breaking support at $505 to close around $487. It now looks set to fill the gap created in June, which sits at $468.

Alibaba has had a significant run since the announcement of the ‘Stimulus’ plan in China. From a technical perspective, the stock looks stretched at this point. There are a lot of assumptions being made about what the Chinese Communist Party plans to do, and maybe they’ll follow through, maybe they won’t. Personally, I don’t put my investing faith in the CCP.

I’m not sure what pattern Intuit is forming these days—it almost looks like a bird or something. More importantly, it seems to resemble a distribution pattern, which likely isn’t a good sign. My guess is that we’ll find out soon enough what it really is.

-Mike

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