This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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September 17, 2020
STOCKS – AAPL, FB, NFLX
Macro – SPY, QQQ,
- Salesforce Has A Big Gap Lower To Fill
- Markets Are In A Dangerous Spot
- Big Cap Technology Breaking Down
- Apple’s Stock Declines May Only Be Starting
- It All About The Dollar – Midday
- Beware Of The Rally Ahead Of The Fed
- 9 Themes For The Week Of September 14
- Sell-Off Has Much Further To Go
- My Portfolio Breakdown -Entry Spots
- When Adjusting For Growth The S&P 500 Is It Most Expensive In 40 Years
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL
Stocks fell today, with the S&P 500 down about 85 bps, and the NASDAQ 100 down around 1.5%. It sounds terrible, but it could have much worse, if not for a mild rally in the final hour, that helped add back about one percentage point.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The index had shown some strong resilience testing support on the S&P 500 around the 3,330 level on a few occasions, each finding a meaningful bounce. We are left to wonder what happens next, and to be honest, I wish there was more clarity, but there is hardly and identifiable pattern to lean on in either the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ 100.
It leaves me mean leaning on the concept that the April uptrend is broken, and that to me is a significant enough of a change in trend to think that this a market heading lower, not higher. Just from an RSI and Bollinger band perspective, the index is not oversold, and for now, the 50-day moving average seems to be offering some support, while the 21-day moving average is acting as resistance. Meanwhile, the nine and 14-day moving averages are now rolling over. Typically I wouldn’t say I like to lean on the moving averages for support levels, but I know some people do. My expectation is that it will give way.
Meanwhile, the Qs fell today and are now trading below their 50-day moving average, which acted as resistance. So go figure.
The more significant concern is what is taking place is in the big technology names, like Apple, which is trading right around support at $109. If Apple breaks support, there is a long way to drop. Again, I noted the bearish betting in the stock the other day, and the possibility the stock could drop $96. (Premium content – Apple’s Stock Declines May Only Be Starting)
Facebook did break support and now runs the risk of fill a gap down around $235.
Finally, Netflix fell below $475, and I think that sets up a potential push lower towards $450.
Have a good night!
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.