Stocks Dump Hard After Morning Rally Attempt Fails On July 18, 2022

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7/18/22

STOCKS – UBER, XBI

MACRO – SPY, VIX

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Stocks had an exciting day, starting higher and finishing lower. The S&P 500 was up around 1% to start the day and finished the day lower by 85 bps. The index was drifting lower all day and just needed an excuse to sell off, and that came in the afternoon when Apple said it would slow down hiring in 2023.

There are a series of lower highs in the S&P 500 and potentially a triple top pattern. We briefly tested 3,817 today, and it managed to hold. But I think we will fill that gap at 3,790 very quickly, and I still think that gap at 3,675 is going to be filled too.

There is a path to the 3,675 level, which would not violate any of the current trading channels the S&P 500 is currently moving around from a horizontal and vertical direction.

VIX

Also, the VIX managed to move higher on the day, rising back above 25. The VIX was higher all day from open to close, and indicated early on that something was off with the rally in the equity market.

10-day realized volatility is starting to creep higher again, which should help drag the VIX up along with it. On top of that, there is a tremendous risk that comes on Wednesday with Mario Draghi’s role as Italy’s Prime Minister, then the ECB on Thursday, and then the Fed next Wednesday; I can’t see how the VIX stays at 25.

Uber (UBER)

Uber rose 4% today, and I’m not sure if the stock has broken out or not. It looks like it may have broken that downtrend, but one can’t be sure until you get some follow-through.

Biotech (XBI)

The Biotech’s had a bad day, with the XBI dropping more than 3%. The sell-off in the XBI started much earlier than the S&P 500 sell-off, suggesting sellers were just looking for a reason to sell. In the ETF, there could even be a triple top or Head And Shoulders pattern or whatever you want to call it. The pattern structure is unstable, with two monster days of rallies, similar to what we saw in the S&P 500 futures last week. So if the XBI collapsed, returned to $64, and closed that gap, I wouldn’t be surprised.

That’s going to be it for today.

-Mike

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