September 26 – Stock mentions: SPY, MU, TSLA, AMZN, AMD, NKE

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own TSLA

For anyone that would like to watch me present at Stocktobfest tomorrow, you can use this link to get a notification. Anyway, the topic, if you are interested is on why I think the market still has further to rise.

I should have done a topic on something like Oh Recession, Recession, Where Are You? It’s Been Nearly A Whole Year Now. October 3 was the peak in 2018, remember?

https://events.stocktwits.com/stocktoberfestwest/

I go on at 10:30 am Pacific Time.

I could get used to this stock market closing at 1 pm thing; there is something nice about it. I’m not so sure how it would work out in the morning. I got up eight today, only to discover the market had already been open for 3 hours. Strange.

MACRO

S&P 500 (SPY)

Regardless stocks didn’t have a great day falling by 24 bps. What is worse to some degree is that the index failed yet again at 2986. However, the good news is that a small uptrend has recently formed. I’m curious to see how this works out between the two trend lines.

It would seem that a megaphone pattern has been created in all of this mess.  It established that dread loch-ness monster pattern we tend to hear about from time to time.

It is just one of those nasty patterns that look terrifying, but in reality, means nothing, because I made it up. But still, once again it proves that charting is in the eye of the beholder.

Back to reality, it is tough to say at that this moment in time which way the market wants to push. If the index fails again at 2985 tomorrow, I’d have to believe our next move is lower.

STOCKS

Micron (MU)

Micron surely won’t be helping the stock market. It is falling in the after-hours to support at $45.50. It will be necessary for that level to continue to hold. A drop below $45.50 likely sends it back towards $42.

I didn’t listen to the call, but I did quickly look at the guidance. Revenue guidance was stronger than expected, but earnings were weaker than expected. That is a tale of margin compression. Micron and margin compression-only mean one thing, a lower stock price.

Tesla (TSLA)

I can’t believe it took this long for a “leaked” email to surface on Tesla’s delivery numbers. I was starting to get worried that perhaps the numbers would miss. Well, today, the worries stopped. A “leaked” email revealed that the company is very close to reaching 100,000 deliveries this quarter. So much for the demand issue, everyone was screening about in May. Now if those gross margin numbers can come up, then the stock would be worth a lot more.

Nothing changes for the chart, with resistance still at $253.

Amazon (AMZN)

Amazon is starting to look as if the stock is in trouble. I’m beginning to think $1620 will soon be a reality.

AMD (AMD)

AMD continues to look weaker too, with $27.20 on the horizon.

Nike (NKE)

Nike had a significant break out followings its results. It looks like it still has further to rise, to maybe $95.50.

Have a good one!

-Mike