This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
Otherwise, enjoy the column!
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September 26 – Stock mentions: SPY, MU, TSLA, AMZN, AMD, NKE
Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own TSLA
For anyone that would like to watch me present at Stocktobfest tomorrow, you can use this link to get a notification. Anyway, the topic, if you are interested is on why I think the market still has further to rise.
I should have done a topic on something like Oh Recession, Recession, Where Are You? It’s Been Nearly A Whole Year Now. October 3 was the peak in 2018, remember?
https://events.stocktwits.com/stocktoberfestwest/
I go on at 10:30 am Pacific Time.
I could get used to this stock market closing at 1 pm thing; there is something nice about it. I’m not so sure how it would work out in the morning. I got up eight today, only to discover the market had already been open for 3 hours. Strange.
MACRO
S&P 500 (SPY)
Regardless stocks didn’t have a great day falling by 24 bps. What is worse to some degree is that the index failed yet again at 2986. However, the good news is that a small uptrend has recently formed. I’m curious to see how this works out between the two trend lines.
It would seem that a megaphone pattern has been created in all of this mess. It established that dread loch-ness monster pattern we tend to hear about from time to time.
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It is just one of those nasty patterns that look terrifying, but in reality, means nothing, because I made it up. But still, once again it proves that charting is in the eye of the beholder.
Back to reality, it is tough to say at that this moment in time which way the market wants to push. If the index fails again at 2985 tomorrow, I’d have to believe our next move is lower.
STOCKS
Micron (MU)
Micron surely won’t be helping the stock market. It is falling in the after-hours to support at $45.50. It will be necessary for that level to continue to hold. A drop below $45.50 likely sends it back towards $42.
I didn’t listen to the call, but I did quickly look at the guidance. Revenue guidance was stronger than expected, but earnings were weaker than expected. That is a tale of margin compression. Micron and margin compression-only mean one thing, a lower stock price.
Tesla (TSLA)
I can’t believe it took this long for a “leaked” email to surface on Tesla’s delivery numbers. I was starting to get worried that perhaps the numbers would miss. Well, today, the worries stopped. A “leaked” email revealed that the company is very close to reaching 100,000 deliveries this quarter. So much for the demand issue, everyone was screening about in May. Now if those gross margin numbers can come up, then the stock would be worth a lot more.
Nothing changes for the chart, with resistance still at $253.
Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon is starting to look as if the stock is in trouble. I’m beginning to think $1620 will soon be a reality.
AMD (AMD)
AMD continues to look weaker too, with $27.20 on the horizon.
Nike (NKE)
Nike had a significant break out followings its results. It looks like it still has further to rise, to maybe $95.50.
Have a good one!
-Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.