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September 25 – Stock mentions: SPY, SHOP, NFLX, AMZN, MU
Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own NFLX
Macro
Stocks had a strong rebound on September 25 with the S&P 500 rising by about 65 bps to finish the day at 2,985. The market seems to have shrugged off the impeachment inquiry and instead completely turned when President Trump said a trade deal with China could happen sooner than you think. At least, we now know the order of importance, or what the market views as more important at this point.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The level around 2985 has acted been acting as a mild level of support, so now that turns to resistance. You can see by the chart how that is precisely where it stopped rising today.
There is now a downtrend in which the index needs to contend with around 2,995. A break of that downtrend will likely help to push the index back to the highs. A failure at that index likely results in a retest of the August breakout. It is that simple at this point.
Stocks
Shopify (SHOP)
Shopify had a good day, regaining some of its losses. I continue to think that this stock is in the middle of some momentum unwind if such a thing still even exists. Regardless the stock had a nice bounce today and appears to have formed a double bottom and also broke the downtrend that had been in place since September 6. Now, all it needs to do is get back over $315 to make a push back to $335.
Netflix (NFLX)
Netflix also had a nice bounce today, and it too appears to have broken a downtrend that started on September 18. The stock needs to get back over $273 to consider a bounce back to $284, and perhaps the worst of the decline is behind us.
Micron (MU)
Micron will report results tomorrow after the close, and the stock is in a rising wedge, but based on the wedge it seems possible that the stock could rise to around $52 before eventually doing a U-turn lower. But when it comes to earnings, technicals are very hard to rely on, solely.
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[youtube-feed feed=7]Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon had a nice bounce-back too, but like the others, it still needs to clear a level of resistance at $1775. The stock has been dead since the beginning of August.
That’s going to be it for today. Back at some point tomorrow.
-Mike
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Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.