This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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Stock mentions: AAPL, MU, NVDA, HD, NFLX
Macro mentions: SPY
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL AND NFLX
Premium Reading The Markets Content from November 20
- How I Find My Ideas And My Process
- Stocks Giving Back On Negative Trade Headlines — Surprised!?
- Morning Commentary 11.20.19
S&P 500 (SPY)
Stocks finally gave back some on November 20, falling by roughly 40 basis points. The index fell straight to the uptrend line in the middle of the day following news the “trade deal” may be delayed to 2020, whatever. The index fell to as far as 3,095 and bounced.
It is becoming increasingly apparent that the market doesn’t concern itself much anymore with the trade war. My hunch is that the effects of tariffs, that so many investors have worried about, maybe finally fading away. Tariffs, unless more are implemented or raised, will no longer have a negative drag on earnings, and those earnings are now normalized.
It means the market is expecting earnings growth to return in 2020.
I’m crossed currently because I would like to see the index come in some more. However, that would also risk jeopardizing the uptrend, which could endanger the index falling back to the break out 3,030. Tomorrow will be a telling day. Unfortunately, that is the scenario that may play out, a drop to 3,030.
Apple is one stock that may suffer in a pullback regardless of the “trigger.” The stock has had a great run and is testing support and an uptrend at $260. The stock is also overbought, and could fall to around $250.
Micron is falling apart, and the stock is now very close to a big break down. I talked about this today in the midday update. The stock is now breaking support at $45.50. Premium content- Stocks Giving Back On Negative Trade Headlines — Surprised!?
Netflix continues its trend higher, and shares are now finding some reliable support around the $300 level. If the market does continue lower tomorrow, it will be a perfect test to see how strong support for Netflix is.
Home Depot (HD)
Home Depot continues to decline and is nearing support at $219. The uptrend in the RSI is broken, now the questions if the uptrend in the stock is broken. We find out tomorrow here too; $ 210 may be next.
Nvidia is still showing signs of weakness, with an RSI that is now clearly heading lower, and a stock that is struggling to get over $212. I talked about this today in the mid-day. – Stocks Giving Back On Negative Trade Headlines — Surprised!?
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