Subscribe to receive this FREE daily commentary directly in your email
MARCH 24, 2021
STOCKS – ROKU, TDOC, MU, ZM, XBI
MACRO – SPY, QQQ, BTC
Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – FREE 2-WEEK TRIAL
- Midday- Stocks Pull back As Dollar Nears Next Move Up
- Video: Plotting A Path For Stock Over The Next 6 Months
- Morning Note: Major Risks For Rally Not To Hold
- MIDDAY: The Dollars Rise Leads To Risk Aversion Trade
- Morning: Stocks Set To Fall As Reflation Trade Falters
- Midday 3.22.21 – A Gamma Hang Over
- Morning Note: Yields Still The Center Of Focus
- Rising Rates Are Bad For Stocks
- T.W.A – Past The Point Of No Return?
Stocks had another weak session, with the S&P 500 falling by 55 bps, but was more than 1.3% off its high of the day, so it was a big Intraday reversal. Meanwhile, the Qs finished the day lower by almost 1.7%. The selling pressure has been fierce late in the day more recently, and I’m not sure if this part of the quarter-end rebalancing or there is something more at play here. Regardless, things could start to get ugly, especially for some of these overvalued technology “disruptors”. (Premium content – Video: Plotting A Path For Stock Over The Next 6 Months)
Nasdaq (QQQ)
If the Qs fall below support at $310, it will quickly send the ETF back to around $300, filling a gap from March 9. However, that may not be enough because the RSI isn’t even close to being oversold yet, and volume levels are still strong. Is a drop back to $275 possible? Well, if we drop below $300, we will find out.
S&P 500 (SPY)
There is still a gap that needs to be filled in the S&P 500 at 3,830, and if that happens, the long-term March uptrend will break for a second time, and I don’t think good things follow.
Because the damage has been done, yields have risen, and spreads have widened dramatically. That is strengthening the dollar, and that with all of the other disruptions in the world will help the dollar continue to strengthen, and that will be a big problem for many asset classes, and it will most certainly kill the reflation trade. Even if yields begin to drop some on the 10-year, they are not going low enough to boost technology anytime soon.
Biotech (XBI)
Risk-on has turned off, and biotech is the best example of risk in the market. The ETF is now down more than 25% in the past month, and it probably isn’t finished falling. It hasn’t even hit oversold conditions yet, which means the trend isn’t even close to reversing.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Another risk-on play has been Bitcoin, and that looks like the uptrend just broke. This will really be interesting to watch. My view on bitcoin is not favorable.
Micron (MU)
Another brutal day for Micron as the stock now fell below support around $86, and there could even be a double top pattern in the stock. If that is the case, then $74 is probably only the start of the decline, with $58 or $50 on the board.
Roku (ROKU)
Roku fell hard today and is now resting on support $318. I don’t think this is a retest of the low on March 8, I think it has even further to fall, probably back to $275.
Zoom (ZM)
I’m so tired of Zoom, just break down and go to $275 already, we know its coming.
Teladoc (TDOC)
So when Teladoc falls below $180 does it stop at $150 or go straight to $87?
Anyway,
Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Subscribe to receive this FREE daily commentary directly in your email
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
Liquidity Drain And Elevated Dispersion Point To Market Fragility
Mott Capital's Market Chronicles 21 hours ago