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MARCH 23, 2021
STOCKS – MU, FCX, CAT, DIS
MACRO – SPY, QQQ, COPPER
Mike’s Reading The Markets (RTM) Premium Content – FREE 2-WEEK TRIAL
- MIDDAY: The Dollars Rise Leads To Risk Aversion Trade
- Morning: Stocks Set To Fall As Reflation Trade Falters
- Midday 3.22.21 – A Gamma Hang Over
- Morning Note: Yields Still The Center Of Focus
- Rising Rates Are Bad For Stocks
- T.W.A – Past The Point Of No Return?
The S&P 500 gave back all of yesterday’s gains and then a couple of extra points to finish lower by 75 bps. Meanwhile, the Qs only managed to decline around 45 bps; it still has some further to fall before filling the gap from yesterday; maybe that will happen tomorrow. There is a huge gap still at $301 waiting to be filled from March 8.
NASDAQ (QQQ)
The pattern on the hourly chart in the Qs and the Nasdaq 100 Futures shows a bearish double top on the Intraday. Now it doesn’t tell us where the market is going longer-term, but it would seem to suggest that the next move is lower, likely stopping at $301, as mentioned above.
S&P 500 (SPY)
For the first time in a long time, we have the RSI and the advance/decline line trending lower simultaneously in the S&P 500.
3,900 on the S&P 500 held today, but once it breaks, based on the movement in the RSI and the advance/decline suggest, the next level to look for is at 3,835. That is a huge support level because it marks a gap fill and the March 2020 uptrend.
Copper
Today, the reflation/risk-on trade was crushed with oil, copper, the Russell, and biotech hit very hard. From the looks of it, the sell-off is likely just starting, at least based on copper prices.
At of this thanks to the dollar, which is now very close to its 2021 highs, and has likely much higher to go. I talked about the positions in the futures market this weekend’s premium video. The index is likely moving back to around 94. (Premium content – T.W.A – Past The Point Of No Return?)
Caterpillar (CAT)
Caterpillar was crushed, dropping 3.5%, and more importantly, the uptrend is busted, with $201 acting as the next level of support.
Disney (DIS)
It looks like Disney is ready to roll over, too, as it falls out its rising wedge pattern.
Freeport (FCX)
Freeport is about to make a big drop if it falls below support at $32. Tons of volume traded today, and the RSI is trending lower. The next stop for Freeport is likely $25.50.
Micron (MU)
The sellers were out in force today on Micron, with the stock falling by 6.5%. Volume levels were very high, suggesting plenty of new sellers in the name. Meanwhile, the RSI is dropping and pointing to even lower prices. The chart would suggest that a break of support at $85 sends the stock to $74. It could be worse because if $74 were to break the losses could mount up dramatically all the way back to that break-away gap at $58; ouch that would suck!
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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