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August 16, 2021
STOCKS – AMZN, MRNA, UPS, FDX
MACRO – SPY, QQQ
- RTM – Will The Fed Taper At The Wrong Time?
- RTM Video – Is This The End Of The Rally?
- RTM – Leverage Financial Conditions Are Getting Tighter
- RTM Tactical Update – Tapering Is Coming, And It May Lead To Equity Market Turbulence
- RTM – 2Q’21 Investor Letter
- RTM – Yields, Amazon, Moderna All Lower
- RTM- Will Inflation Be Hot Enough,
- RTM – A Stronger Dollar Will Weigh On Energy And Materials
The market fell early and then snapped back by day’s end to finish the day higher, with the S&P 500 finishing the day higher by 25 bps, while the Qs finished the day flat.
Overall, it really was a very confusing day as many parts of the market were weak with oil and rates down, following the weaker than expected China economic data overnight. While the bond and oil market seem to be sending warnings about slowing growth, the equity market doesn’t seem concerned at all.
It probably isn’t worth thinking about today’s price action because it is likely to change tomorrow after Powell has his Q&A town hall. It really does seem like the perfect setting for him to hint at what he might say at Jackson Hole next week. One would think there is enough evidence to support a Fed tapering process starting sometime this fall.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The S&P 500 managed to climb to and test the upper end of the trading channel today at 4,475, after falling slightly below the uptrend. This has been the upper end of the trading range since late April; how much longer that will remain the case is yet to be determined.
On the other hand, the Qs have been range-bound since the middle of July, so nearly a month. I still expect to see lower prices in the Qs in the weeks ahead.
Moderna fell to $349 today, and that will mark the end of us talking about this one for some time again. It can still fall further, but for my purposes, I’m done.
Amazon fell sharply to start the day and then rallied back. The stock managed to close the gap at $3,200 and then snapped back to $3,300. Given the stock got to $3,200, it is probably best to see what happens from here.
UPS has stabilized around the $190 level, and with a gap to fill around $210, a rebound could be for a little bit.
FedEx seems to be on the same path with a gap to fill up to $297.
Have a good day.
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