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September 28, 2020
STOCKS – SHOP, FB, SQ
Macro – SPY, UUP, GLD
- 7 Themes For The Week Of September 28
- RTM Live Webcast 9.24.20 – Replay
- Risk Aversion Rising – Midday
- More Derisking Taking Place
- Stocks Fail, 2,860 Still In Play
- Stocks Failing At Tough Resistance Levels
- Stock Mount Weak Rally, Watch For Afternoon Fade- Midday
It’s a miracle Monday, with stocks gapping higher, or virtually no news. It is the usual games that seem to occur every Monday now for many weeks. We will have to see whether the algo’s allow the gap to hold or we get a gap fill throughout the day. I tend to think that the gap will get filled as the morning goes on, as the markets have been selling strength over the past few weeks.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The SPY is trading up by 1.25% to around $332.80. It has been a level of resistance for the SPY over the past few weeks. It should continue to act as such as the day goes on. Today will give us a good sense of where the downtrend in the market truly lies, as it feels as if it has been a bit of a moving target recently.
One reason why we see the futures rising is because the dollar is weakening today, with the index down about 35 bps to 94.20. I expect this level to act as a reliable support level, and for the dollar to bounce firmly off of it. Two ECB members were trying to talk down the Euro yesterday, and I suspect the more language we see on the Euro FX, the more the dollar will continue to rise.
Despite the dollar’s decline, gold can’t rally, stuck below resistance at $1865.
Shopify is rising this morning and testing resistance around $985. A break out likely sends the stock back to its all time highs. A failure sends the stock back to its lows of around $850. I tend to think the stock will fail to advance beyond resistance at $985.
Square appears to be working to fill a technical gap at around $162. Usually, after a gap is filled, we tend to continue the previous trend, lower.
Facebook is rising to resistance today right at $259.21, which is likely going to be a tough spot for it to push through.
I guess we will find out things go, don’t be surprised if things fade, and everything gets given back.
Have a great Monday morning,
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