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STOCKS – COST, JPM, DOCU
MACRO – SPY, QQQ, DXY
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The S&P 500 finished higher today by 31 bps; it wasn’t a good day. The S&P 500 had been sharply higher to start the day, rising by nearly 1.5%, and by lunchtime, almost that whole rally was gone. The turn lower in the market came around when the 10-yr rates surged above 3%, and the dollar index started to move up. That pretty much sealed the market’s fate for the day.
If you are looking for a stock market rally, the time for that may be running out. First off, the S&P 500 broke the uptrend that I noted over the weekend, which was part of that bear flag. If this is a flag pattern, then the index should start to drift lower soon, with gaps at 4,050 and 3,980 that are still open.
Additionally, the QQQ ETF has a bearish rising broadening wedge pattern, along with a potential head and shoulder pattern. A drop below $305 is all it should take for the ETF to start moving down.
The big move for the dollar came against the yen today, with the dollar climbing to its highest level since 2002. The dollar may continue to strengthen vs. the yen in the weeks ahead, with the 2002 highs around $135.
Costco has filled the gap from its May 18 plunge. The trend for Costco was clearly lower before the gap was created, and I think that means the stock should continue that prior trend lower now, and probably head back towards its May lows.
JPMorgan has seen resistance at $132 remain very firm, the stock was weaker today, and with a huge gap to fill around $123 from the May 23 rally, I can’t help but think that gap will fill soon.
Docusign has a nice bullish divergence going for it right now, with a rising RSI and weak stock price. That tells us that momentum for Docusign is actually bullish, and if we get some follow through here, the next major level of resistance doesn’t come until $102.
Have a good one
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice.Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.