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Subscribe →Rates dipped slightly today, with the 10-year Treasury falling by about two basis points and the dollar index declining by 40 basis points, providing some relief to risk assets. Given the significant movements in rates and the dollar recently, a pause to consolidate these gains seems natural.
The dollar index remains well above the 10-day exponential moving average. If the trend is to continue upward, this moving average should act as a support region.
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The narrative is similar for the 10-year rate. At this juncture, it appears that the 10-year is closer to a significant breakout than the dollar index. A move above 4.5% for the year could signal that a rise to 5% on the 10-year rate may be imminent.
Despite lower rates and a weaker dollar, the Inflation Expectations ETF (RINF) rose today. As the chart below illustrates, the ETF is nearing a critical breakout above a significant level of resistance.
This ETF closely tracks the 10-year Treasury, so a breakout in RINF likely indicates rising 10-year rates. The market may be poised to see who will be appointed as the next Treasury Secretary, which could influence future movements.
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Gold increased today, reaching approximately $2,615, but this rise appears to be a retest of a previous breakdown. The outlook might change if gold can surpass the lower trend line. However, any upward movement in gold is likely to be short-lived as long as the dollar and interest rates continue to rise.
The NASDAQ is currently hovering at a critical support level. This is a pivotal point, but if interest rates begin to climb and the dollar strengthens, it could spell trouble for the index. The prevailing pattern is a rising wedge marked by a throw-over. We are now awaiting confirmation of a potential break.
-Mike
Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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Mott Capital's Market Chronicles May 15, 2026 1:45 PM