Stocks finished the first quarter down 20%, and nearly 24% off their high, and the second quarter may not start much better.

Stocks May Have A Rocky Start To The Second Quarter

March 31, 2020

Stocks – AAPL, AMD, MU, BAC

Macro – SPY

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S&P 500 (SPY)

Well, the first quarter is a wrapped up, and it wasn’t good by any account, with the S&P 500 finishing lower by 20%, and about 23.7% off its highs. Now, that rebalancing is over, and a slew of economic data is coming, it will be interesting to see what happens.

What has become clear to me, as I mentioned in the after podcast, the sellers want to keep the S&P 500 below 2,650, and that is apparent after the index failed at that level on several occasions the last few days. Premium content – Afternoon Cirrus Show – Midday Update

There is also a new downtrend I have marked on the chart today, and it seems strong based on trading the last couple of days.

S&P 500, spx

Also another “warning sign” here, is that the S&P 500 is falling on heavy volume and rising on light volume, not a good sign. Indicates that buyers aren’t as plentiful. Also that RSI has now flattened out.

I’m sorry to say; I do not like the looks of the stock market going into the second quarter. It just doesn’t look all that appealing. Then you have the ISM and ADP tomorrow, followed by jobless claims on Thursday, and more ISM and Jobs data on Friday. There is just a lot that can wrong; who knows, maybe I will be wrong.

Apple (AAPL)

Apple hasn’t been able to get back over $258, and that is another negative for the S&P 500. It likely means that Apple is heading lower to $234.

apple, aapl

AMD (AMD)

AMD fell through a rising wedge and broke support today at $46.25. I think it is setting up the stock to drop to around $42.95.

amd

Micron (MU)

Micron is sitting on support at $42 with a break sending the stock down to around $39.25.

micron, mu

Bank of America (BAC)

Bank of America has struggled around $22, with a turn lower likely come back towards $18.25.

bank of america

Have a good one

-Mike

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