Stocks May Still Rally Despite Fading Stimulus Hopes
Stocks finished the day down a little bit as stimulus talks continue to drag on.

Stocks May Still Rally Despite Fading Stimulus Hopes

OCTOBER 21, 2020

STOCKS – AMD, NFLX, TSLA, SHOP

MACRO – SPY, QQQ, SMH

MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN TSLA

Stocks were down on October 21, with the S&P 500 dropping around 25 basis points, while the Qs fell by around 10 basis points. It didn’t feel like an overly exciting day, with markets basically waiting on headlines regarding a stimulus deal. So far, there has been no news of a deal, just that they are getting closer, and I continue to think there will be no deal. But the market continues to trade off various headlines. 

S&P 500 (SPY)

As a result of the dullness, the technical charts really didn’t change very much. We are pretty much in the same spot as yesterday, hovering around support at the S&P 500 around 3,440. I still think we have a good chance to target 3,600 by the election. 

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)

Meanwhile, the Qs are hanging around the $284 region. 

10-Year

The 10-year yield reached its highest levels in some today and climbing above 80 basis points. The higher yields are a result of the potential more stimulus coming. 

Semis (SMH)

The SMH is starting to show major signs of weakness, and I noted earlier that a massive option bet was placed that the ETF falls from here. A drop below $180 would create problems for the sector. (Premium content – Betting Semis Drop- Morning)

AMD (AMD)

AMD is one of those chip stocks that keep on falling. Again, we will still need to break below $75 before knowing just how bad things will get. The RSI keeps telling us the same thing; lower prices are coming.

Netflix (NFLX)

Netflix had a weak day as expected. But the stock managed to fall below that critical level of support around $495, which likely sets up a further drop to around $470.

Tesla (TSLA)

Tesla reported better than expected revenue and earnings while maintaining its full delivery guidance. The stock is trading up only modestly. I still think it is likely heading higher, towards $460. There was also a tremendous bet that suggests shares continue even higher towards $600 into June. (Premium content -first 2 weeks are free to try – Tesla’s Stock May Be Heading Much Higher Long-Term)

Shopify (SHOP)

An interesting pattern forming in Shopify, a potential head and shoulders. It has a lot of the same characteristics as AMD.

Have a good one

-Mike

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