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4/7/22
STOCKS – ADBE, INTU, JPM
MACRO – SPY, QQQ, TIP
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Stocks managed to rally, with the S&P 500 mustering just enough to finish up 40 bps and close the gap from yesterday’s drop. I could argue it needs four more points for the gap to be completely closed, but hitting 4521 may be good enough. It looks like we got a double top on the Intraday chart, and that would signal the rally fades tomorrow and probably undercuts today’s lows around 4,460.
Additionally, the S&P 500 hit the 10-day exponential moving average and reversed off it. If we are in a trend change, then this moving average would signal it. It looks like the trend is shifting from higher to lower.
Real Yields (TIP)
The TIP ETF moved lower today, and at this rate, it looks like it has further to fall. Again, this has been a good indicator of where stocks go over. Given the drop in the TIP, I would say there is a pretty good chance the decline in the NASDAQ is far from over.
Intuit (INTU)
I’m still watching Intuit; it is a good one to watch as it may give a clue to what happens next for the broader technology sector. I mentioned Sunday it looked like it was in a bear flag. This week has tested both sides of the range and is very close to breaking down.
JPMorgan (JPM)
The banks kick off earnings season next, and expectations have been falling for them. JPM’s first-quarter earnings estimates have dropped from $3 in January to $2.70. It explains why the stock has been so weak lately.
Adobe (ADBE)
Adobe has that inverse Head And Shoulders pattern I also mentioned on Sunday, but it hasn’t worked. Any Head And Shoulders pattern that doesn’t do the reversal is supposed to become a continuation pattern eventually. It is starting to look like the one in H&S in Adobe will be a continuation pattern down.
Have a good one
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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