This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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STOCKS – AMZN, SHOP, NVDA, AMD, TSM
MACRO – 10YR, SPY, QQQ, TIP
- RTM – AMD [Internals Notes]
- RTM: As Good As It Gets
- RTM: Real Rates, Retailers, And Banks [Daily Update]
- RTM: The Sinking ARKK ETF [Short-Term Options Idea]
- RTM- Reality [Daily Update]
- RTM: Pre -FOMC Minutes [Audio]
- RTM- Everything Is Starting To Break (DAILY UPDATE)
- RTM: Real Rates Soar Ahead Of FOMC Minutes [VIDEO]
- RTM First Look: The FOMC Minutes Pattern
- RTM: Set Up?
THIS WEEK’S FREE YOUTUBE VIDEO:
It will be a holiday-shortened trading week, with the markets closed on Friday ahead of the Easter Holiday. That will move the Options expiration to Thursday. The big news will come on Tuesday with CPI and real wage data. CPI is forecast to rise by 1.2% m/m and 8.4% y/y. Then on Wednesday, we get the PPI report, which is seen rising by 1.1% m/m and 10.6% y/y. On Thursday, we get Retail sales, which are forecast to increase by 0.6% m/m. Also, this week, there will be a 3, 10, and 30-Yr bond auction. Finally, FOMC Vice-Chair Brainard will participate in a Wall Street Journal event Q&A session on April 12.
There will undoubtedly be plenty of market-moving news in a short four-day week, with rates likely to respond. 10-Yr yields are now very close to making a significant breakout that could send them to their highest levels since 2018 and back to 3.25%. There is only one resistance level left at 2.8%, and then there is nothing stopping the 10-yr from rising back to its 2018 high.
Real Yields (TIP)
Rising nominal yields have been helping to drag real yields up. Rising real yields have been weighing on stocks, especially those in the NASDAQ. The TIP ETF is one of the essential signals that should be watched throughout the week, as a falling TIP ETF represents rising real yields, which is bad for stocks.
The QQQ ETF fell sharply last week and is now firmly trading below the 10-day exponential moving average, a trend change signal. Additionally, the RSI moved firmly back to within the downtrend, also an indication that move higher at the end of March is now over. Rising yields will only pressure the NASDAQ even more, and a break below $348 earlier this week could send the shares to around $336.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The SPY has a head and shoulder pattern, with the neckline broken following a gap lower on April 6. The significant level of support for the SPY remains around $446, and given the bearish head and shoulder pattern, support should break this week, resulting in the ETF dropping back down to $432.
Last week, I spoke about the Head And Shoulders pattern in Shopify, which played out well, with the shares dropping below support and heading to $600. With support at $600 in question and a gap to fill at $560, Shopify may have another leg lower coming.
Amazon had the same pattern type as Shopify, and it has moved back into the RSI’s downtrend and is likely heading back to $2,890.
Nvidia has the same pattern as Amazon and Shopify, and Nvidia finds itself at support around $230, but once that level breaks, it will be on its way to $207.
AMD is in a massive descending triangle and at critical support at around $100. Once $100 breaks, nothing keeps this stock from falling back to $89.
Taiwan Semi (TSM)
Taiwan Semi will report results this week, and this is a critical stock to watch given the weight their guidance may have on the entire semi and technology sector. Shares have not been healthy and will need to hold above support at $93.
Good luck this week
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser in the State of New York. The information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.