This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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STOCKS – ADBE, INTU, JPM
MACRO – SPY, QQQ, TIP
- RTM: Real Rates, Retailers, And Banks [Daily Update]
- RTM: The Sinking ARKK ETF [Short-Term Options Idea]
- RTM- Reality [Daily Update]
- RTM: Pre -FOMC Minutes [Audio]
- RTM- Everything Is Starting To Break (DAILY UPDATE)
- RTM: Real Rates Soar Ahead Of FOMC Minutes [VIDEO]
- RTM First Look: The FOMC Minutes Pattern
- RTM: Set Up?
Stocks managed to rally, with the S&P 500 mustering just enough to finish up 40 bps and close the gap from yesterday’s drop. I could argue it needs four more points for the gap to be completely closed, but hitting 4521 may be good enough. It looks like we got a double top on the Intraday chart, and that would signal the rally fades tomorrow and probably undercuts today’s lows around 4,460.
Additionally, the S&P 500 hit the 10-day exponential moving average and reversed off it. If we are in a trend change, then this moving average would signal it. It looks like the trend is shifting from higher to lower.
Real Yields (TIP)
The TIP ETF moved lower today, and at this rate, it looks like it has further to fall. Again, this has been a good indicator of where stocks go over. Given the drop in the TIP, I would say there is a pretty good chance the decline in the NASDAQ is far from over.
I’m still watching Intuit; it is a good one to watch as it may give a clue to what happens next for the broader technology sector. I mentioned Sunday it looked like it was in a bear flag. This week has tested both sides of the range and is very close to breaking down.
The banks kick off earnings season next, and expectations have been falling for them. JPM’s first-quarter earnings estimates have dropped from $3 in January to $2.70. It explains why the stock has been so weak lately.
Adobe has that inverse Head And Shoulders pattern I also mentioned on Sunday, but it hasn’t worked. Any Head And Shoulders pattern that doesn’t do the reversal is supposed to become a continuation pattern eventually. It is starting to look like the one in H&S in Adobe will be a continuation pattern down.
Have a good one
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