Alaskan brown bear at the Brookfield Zoo in Brookfield, Illinois on April 11, 2008

Stocks Plunge on February 17 As The Fed Pushes Them To The Brink

This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.

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2/17/2022

STOCKS – ROKU, FB, NVDA, PYPL

MACRO – QQQ

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So another down day in the market. The market was due for this drop; the technical setup was weak at best. I know many people think this is about Russia/Ukraine, but it was right around 1 PM that things took a massive turn for the worse. Was it our 1:15 PM ET seller we talked about the other day, maybe.

At 1 PM, there was a lousy 30-Year TIPS auction, and around the same time, St. Louis Fed Governor Jim Bullard noted ALTHOUGH AN UNSCHEDULED FOMC IS NOT IMMINENT, IT IS SOMETHING TO CONSIDER. That was preceded by WE MAY HAVE TO GO BEYOND THE NEUTRAL RATE TO CONTROL PRICES at 11:30 AM.

But that is up to you to decide.

Nasdaq (QQQ)

Meanwhile, the NASDAQ fell around 3% today after the diamond pattern in the futures finally broke. But ultimately, we are likely heading back to the January lows, if not lower.

Nvidia (NVDA)

Nvidia fell about 7.5%, and I don’t think this is finished yet. When I said this stock was likely to face a steep decline, I didn’t mean like in one day. Anyway, the gross margins were worse than expected, and operating expenses are rising. The stock is expensive, and I think, it is still heading back to $207.

Roku (ROKU)

Roku fell 10% and is falling another 20% after hours after reporting weaker revenue and is guiding the first quarter lower. You can’t miss estimates and then guide lower and expect the stock to go higher. The stock is now trading at $115. It could still fall to $102 and fill that gap. It seems like every stock is targeting that April 2020 gap as a spot that needs to be filled.

Facebook (FB)

Facebook has been brutal, and like Roku, it appears to be targeting a giant gap that goes back to April 2020.

PayPal (PYPL)

I thought PayPal might rebound, forget that. If this thing breaks $105, it will head towards that April 2020 gap at $92.60.

Anyway, that’s all

Mike

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