This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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STOCKS – AMD, AAPL
MACRO – SPY, DXY
- RTM: Stocks Melt As Dollar Surges
- RTM: Equity Market Headwinds Are Building [Daily Update]
- RTM First Look: Implied Volatility Led Rally
- RTM: Live Q&A Session 6.24.22 – Replay
- RTM: Recession Fears Grow [Daily Update]
- RTM: Next Live Session Will Be Friday, June 24 At 12:30 PM ET
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL
The S&P 500 fell by 2% on the day. I was on to something yesterday when I thought things didn’t seem right. The market popped at the opening but collapsed throughout the morning, dropping 3.1% Intraday from the peak. Maybe the weak economic data at 10 AM contributed to the decline; I can’t be sure. But the dollar index was very strong today and appears to have broken out of its recent slumber.
The move higher in the dollar certainly did not come because of the weaker expected consumer sentiment reading. The rally started this morning on euro weakness. It looks like a cup-and-handle technical pattern in the dollar is trying to play out and could send it to around 106.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Finding the pattern in the dollar made me realize there was probably a good chance there was one in the S&P 500. Of course, the pattern was there, with an inverted cup and handle. The handle broke today. For now, the first level of support for the S&P 500 would come at 3,800 and then down around 3,675.
There is a lot more detail in a free YouTube video update I provided.
Apple got to the trendline yesterday and failed at it today. Apple needs to hold above $130, which is a significant level. The market will likely make a new low if Apple makes a new low.
AMD looks very weak at the moment, with the odds of $73.50 coming into play increasing. With a gap still open, $61 may even be possible.
That’s all for today.
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice.Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.