This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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January 10, 2020 6:15 AM ET
Stocks: SWKS, BYND, QRVO, GOOGL, FB
Macro: EWG, SPY, SMH
- S&P 500 +8.75
- US 10-Year 1.85%
- Dollar Index 97.53
- Oil $59.50
- VIX 12.35
- Japan +0.47%
- HK +0.27%
- SK +0.91%
- China -0.08%
- Germany +0.32%
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN SWKS AND GOOGL
I know last night I said I would put out the morning commentary after the jobs data, but I also wasn’t planning on getting up at 4:30 AM, and discovering at 10:30 PM last night I had to pick the kids up from the Bus stops today. Surprise.
So I am making it up to you, by guessing what the jobs number will be. So here it is … 225,000. Now, if I’m right, I can’t tell you my secret formula because there is a method to the madness. If I’m wrong, I tried.
Anyway, the estimates are for 158,000. Good luck to me.
The good news is that the Russell 2000 may not be able to confirm the S&P 500 rally, but the German DAX can. That’s because the DAX index is very close to making a new all-time high. This is coming from a country that was actually on the cusp of a real recession, unlike the US, which was on the cusp of a fictional recession.
S&P 500 (SPY)
S&P 500 futures are up again today, now trading higher by around 8.75 points, at least before the jobs data, at 3,284. Not much new here to say. The futures have officially broken free of the flag formation I noted the other day. Meanwhile, the RSI trend is solidly moving higher. I know the index is technically overbought, but it is the trend that may matter more. I did a premium video a while ago showing you – How I Use The RSI To Find Turning Points In Stocks
3,400 continues to be the next level I am targeting. I just don’t want it to get there before April. Seriously.
The SMH appears to be on the move higher towards $152, again look at the strength of the RSI. I changed the SMH chart over to a log view.
One reason semis are likely to continue to rise today is that Skyworks got an upgrade today by Mizuho to Buy from Neutral and a price target boost to $132 from $90. The stock is breaking out today if the gains in the pre-market hold. The company is reporting results nearly 2-weeks early than last year on January 23, and before Apple, which is rare, based on my memory. It looks like someone is excited to report results.
Qorvo is also rising today after Mizuho increased its price target on this stock to Buy from Neutral while raising its price target to $125 from $80.
Beyond Meat (BYND)
Beyond Meat is rising again today, and I continue to think the stock is heading towards $100, you can see the RSI has been telling the tale of a stock that wants to move up.
Alphabet got a significant initiation from Bernstein at Outperform with a $1,600 price target. Yeah, I’d agree with that viewpoint.
Facebook was initiated with an Outperfrom rating at Bernstein, with a $250 price target. Well, I have been proven wrong with Facebook with my bearish view more times than I’d like to admit recently. There was a time I was good at calling Facebook, but lately, not so much. Regardless, I continue to try, and the stock appears to have filled the gap at $218. The RSI suggests the stock continues to move higher.