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11/3/20
STOCKS – ROKU, BABA, AMD
MACRO – SPY, OIL,
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- Gaps Filled, Lower From Here?
- This Is Why Stocks Are Soaring And May Continue To Act Strange
- Status Quo
- Stocks Give Back Gains
- Betting On Rising Vol
- Monster Themes To Watch For Week of 11.2.20
Stocks continued to surge, today filling a gap from October 28 and failing right at it. It would indicate that the next move in the index should be the previous trend, which should be lower. In this case, potentially filling all the gaps down to 3,270. The relative strength index is still trending lower as well, confirming the gap-fill pattern.
I have read that the S&P 500 has correctly called the election for the past forever how many years it was up or down over the past three months. If you must know, the S&P 500 on August 3 and 4 was 3,284 and 3,306. So yes, the S&P 500 is higher than those prints and would suggest the incumbent wins, Trump. I really don’t believe in these types of things, but what do I know. I already predicted Trump would win, so we will find out, I hope, tonight.
Oil
Oil prices also rose today, perhaps predicting a Trump win. Remember if Biden wins, you probably get more trade deals and the removal of some of the Trump restrictions from foreign oil producers, which would send oil prices lower.
Yields and the Dollar
Meanwhile, yields were up and the dollar was down, which indicates we are likely to be spending a lot of money no matter who wins.
Alibaba (BABA)
Alibaba was hit hard after ANT Group’s IPO was blocked by the Chinese Government. I guess for Alibaba all gaps get filled too. The stock fell to around $280, which is a key level of support, that will need to hold if it hopes to rebound.
AMD (AMD)
AMD was up over 2%, but the trend is still clearly lower despite the rally.
Roku (ROKU)
Roku was down today after Comcast said would start selling smart TV. Anyway, I will never understand why the market gives the stock such a big multiple for business with basically no barriers to entry. But it is what it is, and I don’t care enough to fight it. The stock could have a bit to drop if the selling picks up momentum with support around $175.
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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