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3/15/22
STOCKS – SHOP, AMZN, NVDA
MACRO – SPY,
- RTM: The FED Is Likely To Be More Hawkish Than The Market Is Ready For [Daily Update]
- RTM: The Next Leg Lower May Have Begun [DAILY UPDATE]
- RTM Tactical Update: Your Guide To This Week’s FOMC Meeting
- RTM: Fed May Be One And Done [Daily Update]
- RTM: VISA May Be Heading Sharply Lower [OPTIONS IDEA]
- RTM: Options And Bonds Were Right [DAILY UPDATE]
- Who’s Smarter? Bonds And Options Or Equities [Daily Update]
- RTM: Market Liquidity Is Thin
- RTM Exclusive: Apple May Be Heading For A Big Drop
- RTM: The Recession Trade
Tomorrow is the big day, with the Fed statement and projections at 2 PM and the press conference at 2:30. Today looked very much like a short-covering rally, with delta hedging very positive on the S&P 500, SPY, and QQQ ETF. The VIX even moved below 30. So perhaps today saw traders reducing short positions ahead of tomorrow’s big event.
There was no other reason for today’s rally, Asian markets have been a disaster of late, and European markets stalled out. So, the only logical explanation for today’s rally is a risk reduction ahead of tomorrow. Although a slight miss, the PPI print will do nothing to sway the Fed one way or the other. Additionally, yields finished the day flat. So don’t be too excited by today’s rally.
I am a little annoyed because my perfect-looking triangle in the SPY is now not so perfect-looking. But like I said yesterday on the move lower, we need confirmation, which holds true of today. So essentially, today’s rally may mean nothing by tomorrow’s close, and with a giant gap to fill at lower prices, a move lower tomorrow back below is 4200 is possible.
Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia rose by almost 8% today, but you would never know it from looking at the chart. When you look at it, there is nothing worth talking about.
Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon rose by almost 4% today too, but like Nvidia, nothing has changed.
Shopify (SHOP)
Shopify also rose by around 8% on the day, but what has changed here, besides nothing.
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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