3/14/22

STOCKS – AAPL, NVDA,

MACRO – SPY, QQQ, SPYG, DIA

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• RTM: The Next Leg Lower May Have Begun [DAILY UPDATE]
• RTM Tactical Update: Your Guide To This Week’s FOMC Meeting
• RTM: Fed May Be One And Done [Daily Update]
• RTM: VISA May Be Heading Sharply Lower [OPTIONS IDEA]
• RTM: Options And Bonds Were Right [DAILY UPDATE]
• Who’s Smarter? Bonds And Options Or Equities [Daily Update]
• RTM: Market Liquidity Is Thin
• RTM Exclusive: Apple May Be Heading For A Big Drop
• RTM: The Recession Trade

MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN APPLE

Stocks finished the day lower, with the S&P 500 dropping by almost 75 bps, with the NASDAQ QQQ ETF falling by around 1.9%. It could have been much worse for the S&P 500 had it not been for the XLF ETF climbing by 1.25%.

S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Today that triangle in the SPY broke, and if we get a move lower tomorrow,  it likely results in the start of the next leg lower for the markets, which could amount to a drop of around another 7%, and talked about this in more detail in this weekend’s YouTube video.

NASDAQ (QQQ)

Meanwhile, the QQQ ETF closed just above support at $317. Once that level breaks, as discussed in the video, nothing is holding the ETF from falling to around $300.

Rates

At this point, the yield curve between the 3-Yr and the 10-yr is entirely flat. This is a pretty good indication of how the markets are currently thinking about the Fed and its rate hike cycle. It would indicate that the Fed gets to around 2% and is done.

It makes a huge risk for the market going into Wednesday. If the dot plots for 2023 show a rate above 2%, the bond market could be in for a big surprise.

Dow (DIA)

The Dow had a decent day today, with the help of the financial stocks. There is what appears to be a bearish pattern in the Dow, and once the average breaks support at 32,800, it should result in the start of the next leg down for the Dow.

S&P 500 Growth (SPYG)

Something similar is currently present in the S&P 500 Growth ETF (SPYG). Once it breaks $59, the growth sector is likely to see the start of its next leg lower.

Nvidia (NVDA)

Nvidia has a very similar look to both the Dow and the SPYG, with support at $207.

Apple (AAPL)

Apple may be already telling us the break is coming. The stock broke down today, falling below support at $155. If $149 goes, the next level is $140.

Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

Mike