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STOCKS – NVDA, AMZN, ADBE
MACRO – SPY,
- RTM: Today’s Rally Doesn’t Seem Real
- RTM: Will The Market Flip The Script? [Daily Update]
- RTM: Stocks May Drop Into Mid-June [Audio]
- RTM Exclusive: Starbucks May Soar Following Massive Options Bets [Options Trading Idea]
- RTM: This Rally Won’t Last Much Longer
- RTM: Waiting For Options Expiration To Pass [Daily Update]
- RTM: Zoom’s Stock May Be Poised To Rise Following Results [Short-Term Options Idea]
- RTM: Gamma-Mania [Daily Update]
- RTM: Tighten Until Something Breaks
Stocks finished the day higher, with the S&P 500 climbing by 1.99% to close at 4,057. There was no material reason for the rally; it isn’t like there was a flurry of good news or economic data. Today’s rally reminded me a lot of those rallies we typically see the day before an inflation report comes out. The S&P 500 has rallied into the CPI report only to sell off on a few occasions.
Options data were pretty negative today, with a lot of put buying in the SPY and call selling, certainly not supportive of a big rally that we saw today.
I bring this up because tomorrow, we will get an inflation data dump with the PCE readings, which tend to be the Fed’s preferred metrics. Anyway, beware because hotter data could certainly ruin today’s sneakingly suspicious run-ups in stocks.
Additionally, the S&P 500 has rallied about 7% off Friday’s Intraday lows, which is typically what these rallies have yielded. Of course, there could be another 2-3% to the upside. But to this point, this looks like every other rally attempt we have seen in 2022.
Additionally, this sideways market movement looks like the movement we saw at the end of April.
There is also this typical post-Opex rebound, which we tend to see the first few days following OPEX.
The FOMC cycle may be dead, but has perhaps one day left to be proven correct.
I guess the message here is that with the PCE data tomorrow, many things can change, and there are plenty of indications to say the market isn’t out of the woods yet.
If you want to take that one step further, you can use Nvidia as a good example. The stock was getting smoked pre-market but somehow managed to rally and finish the day higher by more than 5%. But notice where Nvidia closed, right below resistance at $179. It couldn’t get through it. That may say a lot right there.
Amazon rallied today by more than 4%, but it was unable to get through resistance around $2250. Maybe it’s a double bottom, though. What do I know?
Just look at Adobe; still stuck in that same trading range.
Anyway, that’s it. See you over the weekend at some point.
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice.Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.