Stocks Rise Again, Moving Further Into Over Extended Territory

This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.

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August 28, 2020


Macro – SPY, XBI, HGX

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Stocks increased yet again, and are pushing the boundaries here in terms of how overbought they are going to get. The S&P 500 surged to 3,508 and an RSI over 79. If we keep climbing, the next level of resistance comes at 3,527. To say the market will keep rising seems like complete lunacy, but that what it does. The Fed hasn’t increased its balance sheets in weeks; there is still no relief bill insight. So, not sure here what derails things at this point. Apple and Tesla will both split their shares on Monday, so perhaps that will shift the tied? Not sure.

I, for one, would not be chasing the market up here, but I haven’t been fond of this market the entire time. I have been a happy holder of the stocks I own, and the cash levels I have carried. Luckily, for me, I have owned the right stocks. 

You can tell, algo’s/traders whatever you want to call them, are just rotating around at this point, looking catch-up trades. I complained for weeks about how Square and PayPal were rising, and how Visa and Mastercard were not participating. Well, that suddenly shifted, with PayPal and Square going nowhere and Visa and Mastercard surging. V and MA have a lot of ground to catch up on, but it seems like that is the trade that is taking place.  I’m certainly not going to complain.

Noteworthy, in just one week, we went from the number of stocks in the S&P 500 above their 50-day moving average from 64.8% to 81%.  Why is this amazing, because since 2012, the 85% region tends to the upper end of the range. Basically, from a near breakdown level to near overbought levels in a week. 

Housing Sector (HGX)

Keep an eye on the HGX, remember it told us the Fall of 2018 crash was coming. Nothing to worry about yet.

Biotech (XBI)

Maybe vaccine fever has pasted, but the XBI hasn’t been a strong performer since July 20. 

Have a great Friday


Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results. 



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