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Stocks finished the day higher, rising about 1.1%. It didn’t take much—just word that President Trump would delay auto tariffs by a month. But in a negative gamma environment, momentum can build quickly, and once it starts, it’s just a matter of finding a resistance level to stop it. Today, that was around 5,850.
In case no one was paying attention, the German 10-year Bund surged by 30 bps today. Yes, 30 bps. Put differently, that’s a 2.5% drop in the Bund’s price—a jaw-dropping move. It makes me wonder if there will be some fallout from a shift like that.
It wasn’t just Germany either, rates in France and Italy were up just as much.
Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year rose by five bps, climbing back to 4.29%. It’s hard to imagine rates in Europe and Japan continuing to increase while U.S. rates plunge—historically, that’s not how it works. For now, the 10-year has found support at 4.15% and managed to break back above the downtrend. A move back to the 4.5% region this week doesn’t seem far-fetched, especially if initial jobless claims come in strong tomorrow, followed by a solid jobs report on Friday.
Oil continues its decline, and now comes the real test—it’s back to $66, a key level that has acted as support and resistance since 2019. Good luck.
Another key question is whether oil can continue to fall now that the dollar is dropping like a stone and rates in Europe are rising. At this point, it’s unclear how this all plays out, especially with the ECB meeting tomorrow. Much has changed now that Germany plans to increase its debt and fiscal spending.
Good night
-Mike
Terms by ChatGPT
1. Negative Gamma
•Definition: A market condition where options market makers are short gamma, meaning their hedging activities amplify price movements rather than dampen them. When prices rise, they need to buy more, and when prices fall, they need to sell more, leading to increased volatility.
2. Momentum Build (in Negative Gamma)
•Definition: In a negative gamma environment, once the market starts moving in one direction, it tends to accelerate as market makers adjust their hedges, reinforcing the trend rather than counteracting it.
3. Region of Resistance
•Definition: A price level where upward momentum in an asset or index tends to stall due to increased selling pressure. Resistance levels are often identified through technical analysis based on past price behavior.
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