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August 28, 2020
STOCKS – INTC, SWKS, QRVO, AMD
Macro – SPY, SMH, DXY
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- A Monster Hedge Against Several Technology Winners
- Signs Still Point Lower For The NASDAQ
- Lunacy Builds As Analysts Fall Over One Another To Raise Targets
- Nasdaq Setting Up For Typical 4-5% Correction
- Internals Decline As Risk Assets Diverge
- Pfizer Call Buyers Come Back For Round 2
S&P 500 (SPY)
Stocks are rising here in the US, despite a mixed overnight trading session. Currently, the S&P 500 minis is trading up 27 basis points to 3495. The RSI is now at 79, and the upper Bollinger band has been breached. The last time the RSI was higher was in January 2018. At least, based on the chart, it could continue to rise to around 3,600.
The index is extremely overbought, and this puts it in hazardous territory. When the market gets this overbought, it doesn’t take much for momentum to shift in quickly, and unexpectedly.
Dollar
The dollar is sinking today after Shinzo Abe said he’d resign from his post as PM of Japan. This is causing a big risk-off move in Japanese equities, and a big push into Yen. As a result, the dollar is weakening, and we see yields in the 10-year lower. This is an essential level for the dollar, and not what I had been thinking would happen. But then again, I didn’t know Abe would be resigning.
Semis (SMH)
We should probably watch the SMH pretty closely. It looks like it retesting the breaking of its uptrend. It could mean that the ETF is heading lower from here.
AMD (AMD)
AMD has struggled around resistance at $86.50. It is a significant level as it could market a double topping pattern, a reversal pattern.
Intel (INTC)
Intel is the only stock that doesn’t seem to go up these days. It probably means it goes lower to $47.60.
Skyworks (SWKS)
Skyworks broke that significant uptrend, and if it suggests a reversal of trend, then $128 would be the next level to look for.
Qorvo (QRVO)
We can see that Qrovo has started to roll over as well, with the potential to fall back to around $115 and fill the gap.
Ok, see you later.
mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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