Stocks Finish Flat On July 1, And I Get Ready To Take Some Time Off

Stocks Rise On July 1, And I Will Be Taking Some Time Off

This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.

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July 1, 2021

STOCKS – MU

MACRO – SPY, DJT

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Stocks finished the day mixed with the S&P 500 grinding higher and the NASDAQ 100 finishing flat. It was another one of those extraordinary rotate-around days. But it was also the first day of the quarter and the month, which means it was an inflow day. I’m not sure how much of that had to do with today’s rally or not, but tomorrow will be a fairly important day with the BLS jobs report.

Today’s ISM report suggests that the payroll report may not be as strong as some think; given the employment, the index fell into contraction in June. But the BLS job report has been nearly impossible to get right since the pandemic began, so it’s anyone’s guess how the results will turn out. Estimates are for 700,000 jobs created in June and an unemployment rate of 5.7%.

The ISM report also showed that prices paid reached their highest levels in around 40 years. Yet, yields hardly even reacted, with the 10-year holding around 1.46%. I still believe that inflation will be transitory as the dollar pushes higher, pressuring commodity prices lower and likely slowing global growth. It is why the 10-year rates have been stubbornly moving lower and are likely to continue to move lower.

Meanwhile, the dollar continues to push higher and is getting very close to a big resistance level at 93.19. If that level falls, it could have a rather big move up from here, potentially to around 95.

Despite that, the reflation trade showed some life today, but I can’t imagine it will last. Because lower interest rates and a stronger dollar are exactly the opposite of what is good for the reflation trade, in fact, it should put more downward pressure on these sectors.

Micron fell sharply today, nearly 6%, after reporting results yesterday. They didn’t look bad, but clearly, the expectations were big given the stock move higher. There is no surprise the stock fell; now it would be even better if it fell more, because after all, I was looking for lower prices, and I still am; nothing changes in my book. But it is good to know I can still read the options market.

Anyway, there is a good chance you will not hear from me for the next 2-week or so. I am taking some time off next week and getting surgery for my severely herniated disc the following week. Unfortunately, everything I have tried isn’t resolving the issues, and in fact, the latest MRI shows it has gotten worse. I may be able to slip something over the weekend of July 12 or Monday, July 13. If not, know that I appreciate everyone reading through the years, and I will be back.

Mike

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