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APRIL 6, 2020
STOCKS – AAPL, V, TXN, BABA, AMZN
MACRO – SPY
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL AND V
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- Stocks Reach Critical Levels
- Stocks Are Jumping, Lots Of Bearish Options Betting
- Earnings Decline, Still Have Further To Fall- For The Week Of April 6
- The Next Live Webinar Will Be April 16 At 9 PM ET
- Unemployment Rate Understated, As Economy Weakens Materially
- Data, Earnings, Techincal Suggest Lower Prices For Stocks
- Stocks Fall, More To Come?
Stocks ran higher on April 6, with the S&P 500 jumping by about 7%, a significant gain. There seems to be some optimism that the curves are flattening. It appears to be happening in some parts of the world, like Italy, Germany, and Spain, it may be too early to get excited here in the US. The chart below clearly shows that the number of new cases is now falling in those three countries, but they are good 2 to 4 weeks ahead of the US. While I most want this to pass as soon as possible, I am cautiously optimistic and fear the market is getting ahead of itself.
The chart clearly shows that both Italy, Germany, and Spain had two waves in it. While I am most certainly not a Doctor or Statistician, I can read charts exceptionally well, and that seems clear as day to me, the double tops. So we can hope and pray, but let’s be careful still.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The S&P 500 was able to clear what I think was an essential level of resistance around the 2,630 regions, and that could suggest that we likely test 2,725. I’m not sticking my neck out here, though; we need to see confirmation that and follow through tomorrow. I was seeing a lot of bearish options betting on the S&P 500 and VIX, as I pointed out in the morning audio commentary for paying subscribers. Stocks Are Jumping, Lots Of Bearish Options Betting
On the daily chart, we see that both the RSI and the advance/decline line appear to have broken a downtrend, barely. So again, tomorrow, we will need to see a confirmation and follow through.
Apple reached resistance at $257 today, and was also able to poke above it. Again, with confirmation tomorrow, it could probably rise to around $275.
Visa rose sharply, reaching resistance at $170. I’m not sure the stock gets back over resistance tomorrow. If not, it falls back to $150.
Amazon was able to get back to resistance today at $2000 and is where it stopped going up.
Texas Instruments (TXN)
Maybe a good indicator of where things are going to go is Texas Instruments, the stock also rose just above resistance today, and again, if we get a follow-through tomorrow, it can probably go to $115.60.
Alibaba needs to get over $197, or its risks going right back to $187.
Have a good night; lets hope things start to get better.
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.