This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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STOCKS: ACAD, NFLX, NVDA, AMD, TWTR
MACRO: SPY, IWM
MICHAEL KRAMER OWNS IWM CALLS
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN ACAD AND NFLX
S&P 500 (SPY)
Stocks jumped on November 25 with the S&P 500 rising by approximately 70 basis points, closing at 3,132. The index has managed to clear support at 3,110 and was off to the race, setting a record high, and is now on pace to rise to 3,150. The only thing I can take issue with is that once again, the RSI is over 70. Otherwise, things are looking pretty good out there. PREMIUM CONTENT – The Break Out We’ve Been Waiting For Is Here
RUSSELL 2000 (IWM)
The big show was in the Russell index, which finally broke out after being range-bound since February. The index exploded higher today, rising by over 2% to close at 1,622, to its highest price since October 2018. This could be paving the way for a massive move higher, and game of catch-up. Consider that the Russell is up 17% this year to the S&P 500 gain of almost 25%. Should the Russell clear a minor resistance level at 1,640, it is likely to rise rapidly 1,700. I talked about this more today in the midday commentary. SMALL CAPS ARE BREAKING OUT
Acadia reported positive top-line results for its trial in patients with negative symptoms of schizophrenia. The stock is a bit confused at the moment because it looks like a top-line iffy P-value, just below 0.05. But when you dig through it, the higher dose had a strong p-value. ” A greater improvement in the NSA-16 total score compared to placebo was observed in the 53.8% of patients (n=107) who received the highest pimavanserin dose of 34 mg (-11.6 vs. -8.5; unadjusted p=0.0065, effect size = 0.34).”
The stock has been challenging a break out at $48; we will see what happens tomorrow and after the conference call.
Nvidia had a good day, and the upgrade from Morgan Stanley powered the stock higher, breaking the level of resistance I had been watching at $212, and proving me wrong. I’m not entirely convinced the stock is heading back to $236, but the odds are getting better.
Twitter continues to grind its way higher, and for now, the stock continues to be on a path sending the shares to $31.90.
Netflix shook off the Wells Fargo downgrade to finish up on the day and over $315. Not that we are there yet, but if the stock gets over $320, the next level to look for will come at $330.
AMD failed to rise above resistance at $40.20 today, so this will be a big test for the stock tomorrow.
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.