This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
Otherwise, enjoy the column!
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Stocks – LMND, GME, NVDA, SNAP
Macro – SPY, XBI
- Midday Note – The Canaries Are Growing Louder
- Morning Note – Implied Volatility Is Rising
- RTM MIDDAY- Stocks Are Trying To Break Out
- RTM MORNING NOTE: Stocks Will Battle The Top End Of The Range.
- RTM Macro Note – New Leadership May Need To Emerge To Keep The Rally Alive
- RTM TWA – Stock Patterns Remain Bearish, As Rates Near A Breakout
- RTM MORNING NOTE- Rising Yields Are The Biggest Risk To Stocks – Don’t Discount It
S&P 500 (SPY)
Stock’s fell slightly on December 29 by about 20 bps on the S&P 500. More importantly, the index tested yesterday’s opening print on 2 occasions and held. I’m not sure if it matters all that much, but it is worth noting. A break of that level will result in a gap fill back to 3,702.
At least for now, we can consider today’s turnaround as a rejection of the new highs, finishing below yesterday’s closing price. Based on the chart, it seems as if there is a good chance we will see a gap fill before week’s end.
I had mentioned yesterday how the SPY ETF failed to confirm the S&P 500 break out. Today it tried and failed to break out again, and failed, again. What I think is a negative sign for what’s to come.
The Russell and Biotech, the two big risk parts of the market, did not perform well. With the Biotech ETF (XBI) now down 7% this week alone. The ETF broke two major uptrends and is clinging to support around $142.70. A break of that support sets up what could be a drop to around the 50-day moving average at $130.
Lemonade was up today, despite the lock-up period ending. Volume today was not noticeably different, which suggests there hasn’t been any selling of shares from the expiration date. It could be they are merely waiting until the new year for tax purposes? I’m not sure we will be watching tomorrow to see if there is a pick-up in volume.
You can see the RSI broke its uptrend, and I think that means we ultimately see lower prices. (Should be free to read- Lemonade’s Stock Declines May Have Only Begun)
Snap rose today after getting a Goldman Sachs price target boost to $70 from $47. That price target assumes a lot of good things go Snap’s way. The stock made it to resistance around $53.75, its old highs, and just failed. A move back to $47.35 doesn’t seem so crazy over the short-term. (Should be free to read- Snap’s Soaring Stock May Be About To Burn Out).
Not a good day for Gamestop, with the shares plunging by nearly 8% on no news. The borrow rate and the implied volatility levels have subsided some, but not enough, in my opinion. The stock failed at resistance around $22.65 twice over the past few days, not a great sign. Today the stock bounced right off support that I noted around $18.65. The big problem is that there is still a gap to fill around $15.50. It will likely get filled over the next few weeks. The RSI still has much further to g, before getting too oversold.
Nvidia is getting close to the big crack. We have been talking about $460 for a really long time. I still think it comes, and probably sooner than we think.
Ok, good night!
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