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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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YouTube Video VVVNT0lJcjFvb1JzU3VrUEw3cktOcjBWSFEuaGppRXBnaVZHbzg
8:44
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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YouTube Video VVVNT0lJcjFvb1JzU3VrUEw3cktOcjBWSFEuWXkzM3ZxY0xJUVk
10:41
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
3
YouTube Video VVVNT0lJcjFvb1JzU3VrUEw3cktOcjBWSFEuLTBiUHlBZEtZZEk
Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own Netflix
Michael Kramer owns IWM Calls
New Records Highs!
Stocks surged to a new closing record high on April 23, with the S&P 500 blowing right past resistance at 2,915 and moving quickly over 2,933. Man, have we come a long way. It was almost four months ago to the day that S&P 500 closed at 2,351.10, and it felt like the world was caving in. But we remained positive, climbed the wall of worry, and proved everyone wrong on the way higher.
I could go on and start pointing out all the stories I wrote about why the economy wasn’t going into recession and why the S&P 500 would rally and move higher, but I won’t. Looking forward I still think the S&P 500 has further to climb, and 3,200 isn’t out of reach.
As I have said over and over, the S&P 500 isn’t even that pricey. It is now trading at around 15.8 times 2020 operating earnings, using S&P Dow Jones operating estimates of $185.65.
Again, this is still below the average PE ratio from 1988, which I calculated using data from S&P Dow Jones. Assuming estimates don’t continue to fall, 17’s times $185.65 get the S&P 500 to 3,156.
But here is the thing, what if earnings estimates dropped too far, and they start to rise? After all, most investors thought the world was going into recession, which is why stocks fell so much in December. That outcome doesn’t seem to be in the cards in 2019. If earnings estimates for 2020 rise by just 3%, the S&P 500 could increase to 3156 and would still be trading at only 16.5 times estimates.
One should be aware that the market can continue to rise, and depending on the pace that estimates earnings increase, the market could get cheaper!
Russell 2000 (IWM)
The Russell had a good day too, but clearly, it is being held back by resistance around 1,590. It needs to clear this region. I think it will also, I sure hope so for the sake of my IWM calls.
Amazon (AMZN)
Anyway, I revised my Amazon forecast after seeing some bullish activity today in the options. I’m not going to get into here; I talked about more in the subscriber area. The stock also broke out rising above $1,900; it puts $2,025 in to play for earnings. It doesn’t mean my fears about the quarter are gone, but I’m going to fight what the market thinks. I’m just glad I don’t own this one.
Facebook (FB)
Facebook continues to look very strong, and $186 is coming very quickly, and $195 may be next.
Netflix (NFLX)
Netflix did break out today, and I’m using $388 as resistance because there seems to be a trend line, but I think the next level is $405. I guess all the Disney streaming and slowing subscriber growths fears are fading? Guess so.
Roku (ROKU)
Roku had a big day, and I’m about to throw in the towel here and admit defeat. Should the stock rise above $64, we can call it a breakout. So much for $52. Oh well.
Intel (INTC)
Intel looks like it getting ready for its next leg higher, which could send the stock towards $64.
JD (JD)
JD hasn’t broken out, but it looks like it is getting closer.
That’s it.
-Mike
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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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