1/5/2022

STOCKS – ROKU, TDOC

MACRO – SPY, DIA, QQQ

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• RTM- The Fed Is Going To Be Much More Aggressive Then The Markets Thought
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• RTM- Topping Patterns – Video
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• RTM: An Illusion
• RTM: RISK-OFF WARNINGS

As expected, stocks fell sharply today, erasing nearly all of the Santa Rally in the NASDAQ and about half of it in the S&P 500. I guess nobody read the Wall Street Journal story from yesterday. It was, like I said, a warning message that the language in the Fed minutes would be strong around the balance sheet reduction, and that it was.

So now, the Fed wants to end QE early, wants to raise rates sooner, AND reduce the balance sheet. The market cannot be ok with this, nor should it be. Valuations across the market are too high to support this much monetary tightening. If stocks were to start going back up again, it simply gives the Fed the green light to do what it wants; in a sense, by going higher, it is only making everything worse for itself.

Better still, on January 11, Powell has his confirmation hearing before the Senate. It is unlikely that we hear a Powell that pulls back on his reins, considering as of today, the S&P 500 is in the same spot it was in on December 15.

The S&P 500 could peel off 20% from here and still be at its March 2021 levels. It could drop 28% and return to the February 2020 levels. Do you think Powell is going to blink if the S&P 500 falls, say 15%, or even 20%, probably not? It was easy for the Fed to save the markets in past market pullback cycles, but now with CPI over 6%, it is not that easy anymore.

S&P 500 (SPY)

Today’s decline creates an issue for the S&P 500, as it fell by 1.94% and closed at 4,700. That is below all the highs before the Santa rally and below the November 8 closing high of 4,701. It could easily fall to 4,560 by January 12.

Dow Jones

If the Dow can drop below 36,300 tomorrow, we can make the case that the 2b topping pattern is not dead yet. Sure, it’s on life support, but there is still a chance.

 

Roku (ROKU)

The carnage was pretty extensive today, with those high-flying stocks with insane valuations getting slammed. Roku, for example, fell by nearly 12% today, and the chart looks pretty horrible. The stock managed to find to support around $197. But once that price goes, we are probably talking about $150. The stock is still insanely overvalued for what it is.

It is funny, to be honest, I went to buy a new TV over the weekend, a Sony, and said to the salesperson can I get a Roku Stick too? And the guy said, why do you need a Roku? This is smart TV; there is no need for a Roku. I laughed to myself and was like, yep, my point exactly. Good luck.

Teladoc (TDOC)

Another one of these stocks is Teladoc, which fell nearly 8%, and is now sitting on support around $86, with a break of support sending the stock to probably around $70. Again, an overvalued stock for what it is. Getting my operation this past summer, it became evident that every patient portal has Tel-medicine on it, nothing special, in my opinion.

Ok, that’s all for now.

Mike