This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.
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May 18, 2020
Stocks – GOOGL, XOM
Macro – SPY, QQQ
Short-Term Trends – Cautious
Long-Term Trends – Bearish
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Stocks are picking up where they left off on Friday for now, drifting higher around the globe. But there is very little going on today. The rest of the week will hold more economic data that is likely to be more impactful.
For now, we have the S&P 500 SPY ETF climbing by around 1.0%, while the QQQ’s are rising by 0.7%. Meanwhile, Germany is increasing by 2.7%, while Italy climbs by 1.1%, and the UK is jumping by 2%.
So we can continue to watch the markets go nowhere fast, with the S&P 500 back to its mid-April levels, and the Nasdaq back to its late April levels. I’m not supposed to say that; I guess because many people would likely get upset. After all, we are supposed to be in a bull market. But it just seems like at this point we are just marking time.
It would be nice if the market could break out to the upside, but there is no reason for that too happen. Stocks are not cheap, and the economic state is pretty uncertain at this point. So really, we are just marking time.
I’m not sure that we want to see gold climbing. Gold has broken out and is likely on its way to $1800. It isn’t because people are worried about inflation either, because the dollar has been range-bound. It is because investors are looking for a place to hide.
Meanwhile, where we are likely to go from here is anyone’s guess, but it is mostly going to be tied to whether or not these big technology companies can continue to power higher. So just watch that handful of stocks, and that’s all you need to know at this point.
I go through it all in this free video from Sunday.
Alphabet is trading lower today, following that news late Friday around an antitrust suit. For now, nothing has changed from a technical basis.
Exxon is rising some this morning along with Oil prices. This one doesn’t seem to be going anywhere fast with fierce resistance around $46.90.
Anyway, that’s all I have for today.
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