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#Stocks – $AAPL, $NVDA, $TSLA
#Macro – $SPX, $DXY, #RATES
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YouTube Video –
Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital Own AAPL
So, it was another rather boring day, with the S&P 500 finishing flat, rates up, the dollar up, and implied volatility somewhat higher. This has been a very odd earnings season.
Last night, I noted a rising wedge in the S&P 500, and as of today’s close, the index is pretty much out of room. There might be a little bit more time it could buy, but not much. As I mentioned yesterday, these patterns are bearish by definition. However, just because something is bearish doesn’t mean it has to break lower. Normally, I would have much more confidence in this pattern, but given how difficult the last four months have been for my S&P 500 views, I am quite hesitant about it. If the pattern breaks lower, then it could retrace back to its origin at 4850. Where it goes from there, I would have to see.
I noted earlier that implied volatility somewhat increased today, and that’s because the VIX was essentially flat, but the VVIX rose by 3% to 83, marking an increase for two consecutive days. Sometimes, when the VVIX starts to rise, the VIX isn’t too far behind. The VVIX measures the implied volatility of the VIX, and when the implied volatility of the VIX starts to rise, it suggests to me that something is happening beneath the surface to cause this.
Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.