The Bears May Be Rising As Stock’s Crack on November 18

11.18.20

Stocks – TSLA, MSFT, NVDA, T

Macro – SPY, QQQ, VIX

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The S&P 500 finished the day lower by 1.2%, and the NASDAQ fell by around 70 bps. It was a sleeper most of the day, with the action coming in the final hour after NYC announced it was closing school and going to remote learnings.

I’m not sure if the two are linked or coincidence; after all, I have been saying over the past week how burnt out this market is, and today was no different, except that the sellers finally came in.

S&P 500 (SPY)

There is still plenty of room for the S&P 500 to fall, and it could easily be back around 3,200 in the blink of an eye, erasing all of the post-Presidental election move higher. If not for the implosion in volatility that week, I’m not sure we should have rallied as much as we did. With the VIX falling below 22 today, we are at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to volatility squeezing the market higher.

This is just another narrative we can add to the laundry list of reasons why the stock market is beyond exhausted.

The S&P 500 broke the uptrend today and failed at resistance again at 3,625. That opens a path for gap fill to 3,540.

NASDAQ (QQQ)

The Qs saw volume pick up some today, but only because the sellers came out.

Nvidia (NVDA)

Nvidia reported results after the close that came in better than expected. It does look like margins missed by a hair for this quarter and next quarter guidance. Datacenter growth slowed rather materially on a sequential basis but let’s facts, the second quarter data center growth couldn’t have been repeated. The stock hasn’t done much of anything after hours. When big beats don’t drive stocks higher, it tells you something about the stock’s direction, and it is not positive.

Tesla (TSLA)

Well, we knew everything for Tesla hinged on the stock rising above resistance at $460. It did that today, and the stock went to $487. The next level to watch for comes around $505, and the all-time high.

Microsoft (MSFT)

Microsoft may be heading lower, back towards $198.

AT&T (T)

AT&T is back to resistance at $28.90, and I really can’t find much to like about this company. They seem to a lot of things the wrong way, based on some previous acquisitions. Watch for the gap fill back to $27.50.

Have a good night!

-Mike

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