Subscribe to receive this FREE daily commentary directly in your email
MARCH 4, 2020
STOCKS – AAPL, ACAD, SPLK, V, SWKS
MACRO – SPY, VIX
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN SWKS, AAPL, ACAD, SPLK, V
Stocks rose by over 4.2% to finish the day at 3,130. The rally was impressive, with the market shaking off pretty much every coronavirus headline today as if they never even crossed the tape. So, either the virus risks have been priced into the market, or the virus was nearly the narrative used to explain the sell-off.
Overall, the market seemed very strong today, with a new uptrend forming, creating a series of rising triangles throughout the day, taking out resistance level after resistance level. I noted the first level during the midday update, and the rest was history. Premium content- Stocks Rally, Setting Up What Could Be A Strong Finish Today
S&P 500 (SPY)
Anyway, is the coast clear? It feels like we are getting closer. You can see on the chart; the S&P 500 cleared a downtrend that formed from the start of the sell-off, and how we have now broken it. If somehow we manage to rally beyond 3,185, it would suggest there is a good chance a fill up to 3,330.
I know you think I’m crazy, but did you see all the coronavirus headlines the market blew through today, from LA to NY. It was if they didn’t exist. Clearly, the “panic” the market was in last week, is not the case, most certainly not today.
VIX
The VIX is sitting right on support at 30, and a break of support at 30, sends the VIX down to 26, and well, would suggest fear levels are retreating.
Skyworks (SWKS)
Skyworks preannounced today, and as I noted on the morning call, it was in pretty much in line with Qorvo, with a roughly 5% reduction in revenue guidance. The company pointed out in the press release; the miss which was due to the demand environment, which due to the interruption in the supply chain, basically because of Apple. How a roughly $40 million shortfall in revenue for one quarter turns into a $3 billion drop in market cap is beyond me. Anyway, the stock appears to have support around $100, and I think it starts working back to around $112. Premium content – Morning Commentary – Turning To South Korea For Guidance
Apple (AAPL)
I’m not the only one crazy enough to think the market is heading higher. Someone was making a reasonably sizeable bet that Apple’s stock goes back to its all-time highs. Premium content – Apple’s Stock May Be Heading Back To Its All-Time Highs
Visa (V)
Visa appears to be recovering, and someone is betting that shares rise back to $211 by June. The stock has its next level of resistnace at around $200. Here is a link to the free story. Visa’s Coronavirus Sell-Off May Be Overblown
Acadia (ACAD)
Acadia finally made it through resistance around $43.30, and well, the next stop appears it may be around $46.
Splunk (SPLK)
Splunk reported results after the close, and the stock initially plunged because the company’s revenue guidance for the first quarter and full-year came in well below estimates. But then came the conference call, and the company explain it was due to the transition to the cloud, and the accounting of the revenue. Then they gave their longer-term guidance, and well, the stock did a significant u-turn. I never heard so many happy people on a call, even the analysts sounded thrilled, and I think $161 is likely the next stop.
Anyway, I may take the mornings off the rest of the week. I’m pretty fried; I will see how I feel. Maybe an abbreviated version.
-Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Subscribe to receive this FREE daily commentary directly in your email
This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
Rising Inflation Signals And Tariff Uncertainty Set Stage For Volatile Summer
Mott Capital's Market Chronicles 24 hours ago