The Bull Market Rally May Have Ended With April, It Sure Looks Like It

This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.

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May 1, 2020

Stocks – AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, QCOM, NFLX

Macro – SPY, QQQ

Funny Level – Not So Much

MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN AAPL AND MSFT

Mike’s Premium Content on Reading The Markets

Stocks are falling in the pre-market with the S&P 500 ETF pointing to d a decline of about 2.2%. Most of Europe is closed today, and at least on the surface, it seems like the market is responding to the weak earnings reports and from some comments that I heard from President Trump last night about China and the virus, and (gulp) the use of tariffs.

Don’t forget you get the ISM Manufacturing Report at 10 AM. That should be interesting.

S&P 500 (SPY)

The index is falling outside of the rising wedge I noted yesterday, and that could spell bad news for the market and the big run-up in April. The next meaningful level of support comes around $280.  We are also well below the Volatility Trigger zone on the SPX around 2,850. This is a topic we talk about in the premium area a lot later. Premium content – The Week Ahead For April – Volatility To Rise? 

NASDAQ (QQQ)

The Nasdaq Q’s are falling today outside of the rising channel for the first time since the March lows. Depending on where the NASDAQ closes, this could be an extremely bearish indication.  More important, that bull rally you saw since the end of March is over.

If you think it is not possible, go back and check your history charts. Hint – start in the year 2001.

qqq, ndx

Amazon (AMZN)

Amazon is falling today, and that $2,440 region has been brutal for Amazon, factor in the news that the company is going to spend a lot is sinking the by 6% this morning. The stock still potentially has further to fall back, perhaps back to around 2,180. No one should be surprised by this; this is how Amazon operates, spend, spend, spend. In the past, it never mattered because, in the long-run, the spending is positive, but that was then, this is now, and investors ran to this as a safe-haven trade. But it is not working out as planned.

Apple (AAPL)

Apple is falling some after reporting weak iPhone sales. I wrote this article for Forbes, as I think the stock is range bound between $260 and $295. 

apple, aapl

Netflix (NFLX)

Meanwhile, I think Netflix will continue to move lower and head towards that $386 level. Didn’t I tell you last week, to use Netflix as a proxy for Amazon?!

netflix,nflx

Nvidia (NVDA)

Nvidia is falling today too, and I still think this one is going back to $245 and maybe $218. Have you notice the stock tops out the same price all the time.

nvidia, nvda

Microsoft (MSFT)

I still think Microsoft is heading back to $161 to $165. I said it would fall following results to that level. I never said it would drop the very next day. The options traders bet run through May 15, don’t forget that.  Premium content – Traders Are Betting Microsoft Falls After Earnings

Microsoft, msft

Qualcomm (QCOM)

Again, I think Qualcomm falls to $65. Like Microsoft, I never did I say the day after earnings. Patience is needed sometimes. Instead of being impulsive, let the stock’s price action tell you direction.

qualcomm, qcom

Have a good one.

Mike

Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results. 

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