The Choose Your Own Adventure Monster Market Commentary For The Week Of August 24

This column is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moments notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page, and I do not trade my account on the stocks spoken of in this column unless fully disclosed. If that does not work for you stop reading and close the page. Do not bother me or harass me.

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August 23, 2020

Macro – SPY

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It will be a busy week despite it being the last week of August. The week will be highlighted by Jay Powell speaking on Thursday at what used to be Jackson Hole and is now virtual. I can’t imagine he will say anything that we haven’t heard in recent weeks.

On August 23, the President will hold a news conference regarding a major therapeutic breakthrough. I’m not sure there is anything new, as there has been no big talk of anything in the market. I’m betting it is something about hydroxychloroquine. There has been some work done recently on amodiaquine. Anyway, who knows, the IG Weekend Wallstreet is not showing much excitement trading up 0.09%.

The S&P 500 e-mini futures have been tracking this rising wedge very well. It brings the market to a critical inflection point because a break out could see the market rise sharply higher, like towards 3,600. Meanwhile, a breakdown could send the index lower 2,830.

The RSI has already topped out and is trending lower, while the advance-decline on the market is sinking. Typically, this would be viewed as a bearish reversal pattern. The rising wedge pattern generally is a bearish reversal pattern too.

Apple (AAPL)

Apple has been one of the most significant contributors to these markets run. We can see how overbought the stock has become with an RSI of 80. So what do you think? Can it keep going higher? I have owned it since July 2018, and still do, but that is a long-term like 5-10 year viewpoint I have.

Nvidia (NVDA)

Nvidia has an RSI of 76, and it keeps going higher too. What do you think? Kind of an exciting spot, right?

Amazon (AMZN)

Amazon continues to look impressive. Falling volume, falling RSI, stock hugging the uptrend. What do you think? Uptrend breaks and drops to 2,800 or keep rising to infinity and beyond?

Micron (MU)

Micron has fallen sharply, does it break support at $42 or reverse higher and head back to $50? Stock is getting oversold here, but that doesn’t always mean a reversal of trend right away.

Anyway, you can figure out for yourself this week, have fun!


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