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November 15, 2021
Stocks – FB, PYPL, GM, UBER
Macro – SPY, DXY, OIL
- RTM- The Dollar Continues To Soar As Rates Move High
- RTM Exclusive: Mosaic’s Stock May Head Higher As Fertilizer Prices Soar
- Tactical Update: Tighter Financial Conditions Are Coming, Which Is Not Good News For Stocks
- 3Q’21 MCM Thematic Growth Investor Letter
- RTM Exclusive: GDX Gold ETF May Be Ready For Big Surge Higher
- RTM – Market Now Pricing In 6 Rate Hikes By End Of ’23
- RTM- The Dollar’s Time To Move
- THE NEXT LIVE SESSION IS ON 11.12 AT 1 PM ET
- RTM Video – Adding Roblox To The Thematic Portfolio
Stocks did nothing today, but that wasn’t where the action was. It was about the dollar and yields, as both pushed higher again. The dollar though, continues to impress and may still have much further to climb based on where the euro is trading. The dollar index was up by more than 40 bps to around 95.50. I’m still looking for it to reach 96.30, but that may only be a resting point.
The euro could be heading to around 1.11 to the dollar, or 2% lower, putting the dollar index somewhere around 97.50 to 97.85. At this point, the market continues to price in more rate hikes, and until that tune changes, I don’t see much derailing the dollar’s push higher.
10-Yr (IEF)
Meanwhile, the 10-year pushed back up to resistance around 1.63%. The spread between US and German bonds is getting wider, and if it is going to widen back to 2.06%, then the US 10-year could be trading around 1.85% very soon.
S&P 500 (SPY)
The S&P 500 gapped higher by 30 bps to start the day, and that didn’t hold. The S&P 500 futures hit the 78% retracement level of wave A, which may be too much for this to be a true wave B, but we can worry about that later. For now, I am targeting an area of around 4,590 to 4,600 for the leg down.
Facebook (FB)
It looks like Facebook has formed an inverse head and shoulder pattern. I’m hoping this one serves as a continuation pattern, and not a reversal pattern, I am not a fan of this stock. But if it is the reversal kind, then I’d think the stock rise back to $385.
PayPal (PYPL)
PayPal consolidated today, just below resistance at $213. It could have a nice move higher once above that resistance level, with a big gap to fill up at $230.
Uber (UBER)
I guess Uber is looking to fill that gap around $39. The stock just can’t seem to get out of its own way.
GM (GM)
Looks like GM is hitting resistance just as the RSI makes a lower high. That would be a bearish divergence pattern and would suggest the top is probably in again at the $63.50 area.
-Mike
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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