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MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN GOOGL, AAPL, NFLX, TSLA
Another down day in the Stock Market. No surprise there. When will the selling stop? I don’t think anybody has that answer. First its China, then the Fed, then its inflation, then it was Apple, today it was the looming government shutdown. Every day there is some little piece of news that sends the market lower. Tomorrow it will because traders don’t want to be long going into the weekend.
Take today; the market seemed to fall on news that the government may shut down. Doesn’t this happen like every year? Oh, wait it does. Sometimes if we are lucky, it gets to happen like 2, or 3, or 4 times.
I just want to know are there any people that actually drive trading anymore? Or is all just machines and algo’s? The patterns are amazing.
Apple
There was a report that Apple was going to slash its iPhone units sales by another 4 million. Ok, so the problem here is that we have no idea how many units Apple was planning to produce, do we? Apple doesn’t tell us how many phones they plan to make or sell in a quarter. They give us revenue guidance. So at some point with all these unit sales being cut, one would think Apple might issue a profit warning. I mean 4 million units, even at the iPhone XR base price of $750 is nearly $3 billion. Apple guided to what like $91 billion in the quarter? At some points based on all these cuts there being proclaimed since the three phones release, one would think Apple would need to revise its guidance. Yet with just 10 days left in the quarter, that has not happened.
So I ask with all these supply chain channel checks and reports of iPhone cuts, why haven’t these very same analysts started to slash their revenue estimates? Why is consensus revenue estimates down less than 2% from their highs? It is an interesting question? I would think the sell-side analysts that are discovering all these little nuggets of information about weak unit growth would cut revenue target: not price targets, but revenue estimates.
Make sense right? Of course it doesn’t.
AAPL Revenue Estimates for Current Quarter data by YCharts
Netflix (NFLX)
Netflix retested its long-term uptrend and it held. The stock despite all the wild market volatility has for the moment found a floor. Let’s hope it holds.
Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon has retested it’s November 20 low, and that held too.
Alphabet (GOOGL)
Alphabet continues to hold its lows, too.
I sound like a broken record, but that has to mean something doesn’t it? If we could get one of the ANG stocks to start to rise that would a really good sign. Notice the “F” is still missing, yeah it ain’t coming back either.
Tesla (TSLA)
Well, so much for Tesla getting to an all-time by year-end, who was the idiot dumb enough to say that. Yes, I said that last week I think.
It was one of the last stocks holding; the stock has fallen the last two days sharply. $300 is now support.
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[youtube-feed feed=7]VIX
The VIX finally rose above 26, and maybe that is good, perhaps it is not.
Put-to-Call
The Put-to-Call ratio today hit 1.83! That is the highest level from what I can tell in a nearly decade. Just look.
That’s going to be it. There will not be a commentary tomorrow morning or afternoon. Back at some point over the weekend!
-Mike
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Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Apple, netlfix, amazon, alphabet, vix, put, call
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.