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May 13, 2019 – Stocks mentioned: Apple, Netflix, Boeing, Intel, Nvidia
Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own Apple and Netflix
May 13 was another wild one for the stock market. The S&P 500 fell 2.4% and the NASDAQ fell over 3%. It is what it is, and whether it makes sense at this point, it does not matter. The market appears to be assuming the worse as it typically does.
S&P 500 (SPY)
For now, the region around 2,812 seems to be holding for the S&P 500. It was the next level of resistance after 2,836, and the one beneath it comes at 2,790. Will the S&P 500 fall to 2,790, the trend would say yes. To this point, every attempt by the market to rally has been sold, so at this point, there isn’t enough of a reason for that trend to change. As of now the S&P 500 is about 5% from its peak on May 1. (Premium content: The Next Big Level To Watch For In The Market)
We do not want the index to fall much further than 2,790 or things could get uglier.
The last week or so I have been brutally wrong, and despite the market feeling oversold to me, it is hard for me to get positive at this point. Again, I don’t think longer-term the trade war will have a significant effect on the overall economy, but we will have to wait and see.
NASDAQ
The NASDAQ is down nearly 7%. Unlike, the S&P 500 it needs to hold around the 7,625 or risk falling to around 7,400.
VIX
What bothers me some about today is that the despite the steep decline the VIX didn’t take out last weeks highs. Which suggests one of two things: 1) The selling is coming to an end or 2) the selling is about to get much worse. Seems obvious, the one thing I never like is when the market is falling sharply, and the VIX isn’t rising.
What also makes me worried is all those institutions that have been shorting volatility
10-Year
If the Chinese are selling our Treasuries, it didn’t start today, because the 10-year yield fell to 2.4%, which suggests buying. A drop to 2.32% seems possible.
Copper
Copper is breaking down and that is a bad sign for global growth. We want to avoid a decline below $2.70.
Apple (AAPL )
Apple fell hard today and for now, is holding $182. Apple could be one company hurt if the trade war steps up. The company is facing a double edge sword with a good portion of sales coming from China, and the iPhone being hit with a tariff in the US. Believe it or not, the stock is down 15% from its highs following results.
Netflix (NFLX)
Netflix fell today too, even though it has nothing to do with the trade war. However, when considering that risk is coming out of the market this is one stock likely to get hurt. For now, the area around $340 continues to hold. This stock is down nearly 11% over the past couple of weeks.
11:16
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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7:53
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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Intel (INTC )
Intel has fallen about 25% in a straight line. $42.80 is a must hold level for the stock.
Boeing (BA)
Everything is going the wrong way for Boeing, and it looks like $320 continues to be on the horizon.
Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia is reporting earnings this week and it will be one of the first companies to comment on the potential impacts of a trade war. The chart looks brutal with a test of $150 on the way.
Just remember better days are around the corner, they always are.
-Mike
Mott Capital Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Past performance is not indicative of future results. may 13 May 13
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This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.
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